Watch the segments from 05:50 to 07:15 | 16:45 to 19:30 | 34:15 to 35:30 and 48:40 to 49:25 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Offers Critical Insights at GLOBSEC Forum 2024 on Middle East Stabilization
On September 1, the GLOBSEC Forum 2024 in Prague featured a highly engaging panel discussion titled "Stabilisation in the Middle East: A Global Agenda" led by CNN's Global Affairs Analyst Kim Dozier, discussed the ongoing conflict and the fragile prospects for regional peace. Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, joined other distinguished experts to explore the complexities surrounding peace and conflict in the region. Dr. Bağcı provided a sharp and analytical perspective on the evolving geopolitical landscape, with a particular focus on Israel, Hamas, Iran, and the broader implications for global diplomacy.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
The Futility of a Ceasefire Amid U.S. Support for Israel: Prof. Bağcı painted a stark picture of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, emphasizing that a ceasefire is currently unattainable. With Prime Minister Netanyahu enjoying full U.S. backing, Israel remains in a dominant position, dissuading other Middle Eastern powers from intervening militarily. Dr. Bağcı remarked on the unwillingness of countries like Turkey, Iran, and the Arab states to risk U.S. retaliation by taking military action. However, he underscored the tragic reality that a ceasefire is essential to halting civilian casualties.
The Shift from Arab-Israeli Conflict to a Broader Regional Struggle: Bağcı highlighted a major shift in the nature of Middle East tensions, noting that the traditional Arab-Israeli conflict has evolved into a non-Arab Israeli conflict. Today, Iran and Turkey express greater concern over the situation in Gaza than many Arab countries. This shift, Bağcı argued, is a testament to Netanyahu’s adept political maneuvering. Meanwhile, the silence of Arab nations contrasts with the growing unrest in non-Arab countries, where public and political interest in Gaza is intensifying.
Global Backlash Against Israeli Policies: The worldwide sentiment against Israeli policies has reached unprecedented levels, according to Bağcı. He cited growing antipathy among university students, everyday citizens, and even governments struggling to contain public outrage. Particularly in Turkey, this anger is more profound, shaped by historical ties to the region. Dr. Bağcı emphasized that Israel’s actions are likely to have long-lasting consequences, not only for the state itself but for Jewish communities globally.
The Resilience of Iran’s Regime: Addressing the question of regime stability in Iran, Bağcı provided a nuanced assessment. Despite internal pressures, particularly from young people and women, Iran’s government remains firmly entrenched, both domestically and in its regional influence. Bağcı noted that Iran continues to negotiate nuclear deals with Western powers while simultaneously receiving support from Russia and China. The regime’s strength, according to him, lies in its internal orientation and robust institutions, making any regime change unlikely in the near future.
The Impossibility of Defeating Hamas in the Long Run: When asked about the prospect of defeating Hamas, Bağcı offered a realistic yet sobering outlook. While technically feasible, he argued that defeating Hamas in the long run is improbable. Much like the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) before it, Hamas is deeply embedded in the regional dynamics, and it will likely continue to pose a significant challenge. Bağcı pointed out that Hamas, as a non-state actor with military capabilities, represents a broader threat to both democratic and non-democratic regimes alike, complicating efforts to stabilize the region.
Hamas’s Isolation from the Arab World: One of the more surprising insights from Bağcı was his observation that no Arab country currently supports Hamas and that this is unlikely to change in the future. This isolation of Hamas, Bağcı suggested, could inadvertently work in Israel’s favor, as it limits Hamas's ability to gain political or military allies within the Arab world.
The Role of International Law and the United Nations: Bağcı expressed deep skepticism regarding the effectiveness of international law and United Nations mechanisms in resolving the conflict. He invoked the words of German professor Alfred Minkler to illustrate how the world is in a state of uprising, and the existing international structures are no longer functioning as intended. In Bağcı's view, the future of the Middle East, and Israel in particular, will be marked by increasing instability, driven by both regional and global shifts.
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s remarks at the GLOBSEC Forum 2024 painted a complex and challenging picture of the Middle East. He emphasized the entrenched nature of regional conflicts, the shifting alliances, and the growing disillusionment with international law. While a ceasefire may seem distant, Bağcı’s insights underscore the need for continued diplomatic efforts and a recognition of the new, harsher realities shaping the region’s future.