Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Discusses Iran’s Retaliation Against Israel on Times Now
On October 2, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, was a key speaker during a segment on Times Now, an Indian news channel. The discussion centered around the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, with particular focus on Iran’s potential retaliation and the broader geopolitical dynamics shaping the Middle East. Prof. Dr. Bağcı provided valuable insights into the historical and strategic underpinnings of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, offering a nuanced analysis of the evolving situation.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Shift from Arab-Israeli to Iranian-Israeli Conflict: Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted that the long-standing Arab-Israeli conflict has shifted towards an Iranian-Israeli confrontation, which marks a new chapter in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Historically, Iran was not considered an enemy of Israel until the Iranian Revolution of 1979. He emphasized that both countries, as non-Arab actors, now find themselves in direct opposition, while the Arab states, once central to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, have adopted a more passive stance, focusing on regional stability rather than engaging directly in the confrontation.
Challenges Facing Iran in a Prolonged Conflict: Bağcı explained that Iran is facing significant challenges in positioning itself as a defender of the Middle East. While Iran seeks to present itself as a regional power capable of challenging Israel, it is increasingly being drawn into a conflict largely shaped by Israeli strategies. He stressed that Iran’s military and economic limitations, particularly its lack of nuclear capabilities, make it vulnerable in the event of a prolonged conflict with Israel and the broader Western world. Any escalation with Israel would likely involve major Western powers, from the United States to Europe, further complicating Iran’s position.
Global Alliances and Israel’s Strategic Advantage: According to Bağcı, Israel holds a unique strategic advantage due to its strong alliance with the United States and other Western nations. He referred to Israel as "the son of the United States" in the Middle East, emphasizing the significant military and diplomatic support it receives from Western powers. This alliance not only strengthens Israel's position in the region but also makes it difficult for Iran to achieve its objectives without facing overwhelming international opposition.
International Law and Humanitarian Concerns: Prof. Bağcı critically assessed Israel’s actions in the conflict, noting that they often conflict with international law. He pointed out that global public opinion is increasingly shifting against Israel’s military strategies, particularly regarding civilian casualties. While Israel justifies its actions as a means to eliminate groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, Bağcı suggested that this approach has sparked widespread condemnation, raising questions about the legitimacy of such operations under international legal frameworks.
Iran’s Dilemma in the Face of Western Power Bağcı further elaborated on Iran’s dilemma in facing not only Israel but the entirety of the Western defense apparatus. While Iran has sought to expand its influence across the Middle East, it remains significantly outmatched by Israel and its allies in terms of military capabilities and economic stability. Bağcı warned that Iran’s current course could lead to further isolation and potential economic collapse if it continues down the path of direct confrontation with Israel and its Western backers.
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı highlights that this confrontation is not merely a regional issue but a significant shift from the historical Arab-Israeli conflict to a broader Iranian-Israeli struggle, which carries global implications. Bağcı emphasizes that Iran's limited military and economic resources, combined with Israel’s strong Western alliances, place Iran in a precarious position. Moreover, the conflict’s humanitarian toll and international law violations contribute to growing global dissent. As both nations tread cautiously, Bağcı warns that the stakes are high, and without diplomatic solutions, the region risks further destabilization and prolonged international involvement.
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