Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes the Assassination of Nasrallah and the Future of Hezbollah
On September 28, 2024, during Habertürk TV's Haber Bülteni, presented by Kerem Koçin, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his insights on the assassination of Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and its implications for the future of the organization and the region. Bağcı’s remarks provided a comprehensive overview of the shifting dynamics in the Middle East, with particular emphasis on the growing tensions between Iran, Israel, and the Sunni Arab countries.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Escalating Shia-Sunni Divide: Bağcı highlighted the deepening divide between Shia and Sunni powers in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Sunni-led nations such as Saudi Arabia. He emphasized that Nasrallah’s assassination could further exacerbate this sectarian conflict, pushing the region into more polarized spheres of influence, with Hezbollah acting as a critical player in Iran’s regional strategy.
Netanyahu’s Vision and Hezbollah’s Opposition: Reflecting on Netanyahu’s recent UN speech, Bağcı noted the Israeli prime minister's vision of a prosperous Middle East through cooperation with Saudi Arabia. However, Bağcı underscored how groups like Hezbollah view this alliance as a direct threat, turning the region into what they consider "hell," rather than the "heaven" Netanyahu envisions. Hezbollah's ideological opposition to this partnership could lead to increased regional instability.
Israel’s Strategic Targeting of Non-State Actors: According to Bağcı, Israel’s focus on eliminating non-state actors like Hezbollah aligns with Netanyahu’s broader agenda to neutralize threats from groups operating in Lebanon and Gaza. Bağcı noted that Hezbollah, while not a state entity, holds significant power in Lebanon, making its leadership a critical target in Israel’s long-term security strategy.
Iran’s Calculated Response: Bağcı explained Iran’s reluctance to engage in direct conflict with Israel, despite its support for Hezbollah. Iran, under heavy economic sanctions and facing internal discontent, is cautious about provoking a larger war that could destabilize its regime. Bağcı suggested that Iran’s strategy is to fight through proxies like Hezbollah rather than engaging in open conflict with Israel.
Technological Advancements in Targeting Leaders: Bağcı highlighted the increasing role of advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in tracking and targeting non-state leaders. He drew comparisons to past figures like Yasser Arafat, noting that while Nasrallah managed to evade Israeli forces for years, new technologies now make such evasion nearly impossible.
Leadership Crisis within Hezbollah: Bağcı expressed skepticism about Hezbollah’s ability to quickly replace Nasrallah with a leader of similar charisma and authority. He likened the situation to other non-state organizations, such as Al-Qaeda after Osama bin Laden’s death, where the lack of a strong, charismatic leader weakened the group's operational effectiveness.
Broader Geopolitical Implications: Bağcı concluded that the assassination of Nasrallah could trigger a broader reaction across the region, with Iran reassessing its role in Lebanon. He also pointed to the potential involvement of external powers, such as the U.S. and Russia, in shaping the future of the Middle East. Iran’s long-standing aim to export its revolutionary ideals, Bağcı suggested, may be challenged by the changing dynamics of the region’s alliances.
Conclusion: Middle East Enters a New Phase of Heightened Tensions while Tehran Remains Reluctant to Engage Directly
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı emphasizes the profound geopolitical ramifications of Nasrallah's assassination and the shifting balance of power in the Middle East. He suggests that Israel’s targeted strategy against non-state actors like Hezbollah, supported by its advanced military technology and intelligence from key global powers, signals a new phase of heightened tensions in the region. Bağcı underscores the importance of Iran’s response, predicting that Tehran’s reluctance to engage directly with Israel stems from its precarious economic situation and the potential for internal unrest. Moreover, Bağcı highlights the critical role of charismatic leadership within Hezbollah and similar organizations, noting that the absence of such figures could weaken their influence. As the region braces for further instability, the broader dynamics between Israel, Iran, and Sunni Arab states will continue to reshape the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.