Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Explores the Implications of President Erdoğan’s Recent Remarks on Israel and Palestine
On July 28, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his expert analysis on Çetiner Çetin ile Habertürk Gündem regarding President Erdoğan's latest remarks on Israel and Palestine. The discussion revolved around the potential geopolitical and military implications of Turkey’s stance, with Bağcı offering nuanced insights into the challenges and complexities surrounding Turkey's foreign policy in the region.
Key Insights from Hüseyin Bağcı:
Potential Declaration of War and Global Reactions: Bağcı identified President Erdoğan's remarks on Israel as highly provocative, suggesting they could be interpreted as a declaration of war by both domestic and international media. He stressed that such statements, when made by a leader of a key NATO member, could have widespread repercussions not only in the Middle East but also in Western capitals. Bağcı warned that this bold rhetoric may cause significant diplomatic fallout, complicating Turkey’s relationships with both its NATO allies and regional actors like Israel and Arab countries.
Challenges in Military Intervention Against Israel: Bağcı delved into the logistical and strategic difficulties Turkey would face if it attempted military action against Israel. He highlighted that Turkey's geographical distance from Israel and the complexities of modern warfare make such an operation far more challenging than interventions in Cyprus, Karabakh, or Libya. Bağcı also pointed out that Turkey would require support from NATO or a coalition of Arab states to pursue any military strategy, underscoring that unilateral action would place Turkey in a precarious position militarily, diplomatically, and economically.
Historical Context: Libya and Karabakh Operations: Drawing comparisons with Turkey’s military interventions in Libya and Karabakh, Bağcı explained that while these operations were successful due to specific geopolitical alignments (e.g., Turkish-Russian cooperation in Karabakh), Gaza presents a different and more complex challenge. Unlike Libya, where Turkey received NATO backing, and Karabakh, where regional dynamics played to Turkey’s advantage, Gaza’s situation requires broader multilateral cooperation. He warned that Turkey cannot apply the same military strategies it used in these past operations to the Gaza conflict.
Arab-Israeli Conflict: Not Turkey's Fight Alone: Bağcı made it clear that the Israel-Palestine conflict is fundamentally an Arab-Israeli issue, not one for Turkey to lead militarily or diplomatically on its own. He cautioned against turning the conflict into a Turkish-Israeli confrontation, suggesting that Turkey should encourage Arab nations and organizations, such as the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, to take the lead. Bağcı emphasized that Turkey’s involvement should be in line with these regional actors, rather than taking unilateral steps, which could isolate Turkey from both Arab and Western nations.
The Necessity of Global Powers' Support: For any effective resolution in Gaza, Bağcı argued that Turkey must seek the support of major international powers, including Russia, China, and the U.S., in addition to regional actors. He cautioned that Turkey acting alone would not only fail to bring a solution but also potentially exacerbate tensions in the region. According to Bağcı, the involvement of the global community is essential to securing peace, as the conflict is part of the broader geopolitical struggles in the Middle East, involving multiple stakeholders.
Impact of Erdoğan's Remarks on Turkey’s International Standing: Bağcı emphasized that President Erdoğan’s statements are not only intended for domestic consumption but are also closely monitored by international governments and media. He highlighted that as a NATO member with a pivotal role in Middle Eastern geopolitics, Turkey’s foreign policy declarations have significant global ramifications. Bağcı warned that such strong rhetoric from Turkey’s leadership risks alienating key allies, including Western powers, which could impact Turkey’s diplomatic standing and economic interests.
The Evolution of Turkish-Israeli Relations: Reflecting on the historical dynamics of Turkey-Israel relations, Bağcı explained that the relationship has been both cooperative and contentious over the years. He noted Turkey’s strategic military and political cooperation with Israel in the 1990s, particularly in the context of regional security concerns like Syria and the PKK. However, recent developments, particularly in Gaza, have strained relations, with Bağcı warning that further deterioration could have long-term implications for Turkey’s foreign policy objectives in the region. He cautioned against allowing groups like Hamas to further poison these relations and suggested a more measured approach moving forward.
Conclusion: Necessity for a Nuanced and Measured Response and Multilateralism
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s expert analysis sheds light on the intricate geopolitical ramifications of Turkey’s stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict. His insights emphasize that while President Erdoğan's statements might be viewed as provocative, Turkey's approach must be grounded in multilateral diplomacy and strategic collaboration with global and regional powers. Bağcı’s perspective highlights the necessity for a nuanced and measured response, balancing Turkey’s regional interests with its international relationships. As Turkey navigates these challenging waters, adopting a strategic and cooperative approach will be crucial in shaping its role on the global stage and contributing to a sustainable resolution in the Middle East.
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