Watch the segments from 00:30 to 04:15 | 08:54 to 13:39 and 17:25 to 22:10 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Discusses Israel’s Actions in Syria and Regional Ramifications
On December 20, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, appeared on Habertürk TV's HT360 program, hosted by Dilek Gül, to analyze the intensifying Israeli incursions in Syria. The program delved into the strategic implications of Israel's actions in Syria and their broader impact on regional and global stability. Prof. Dr. Bağcı provided a comprehensive breakdown of the geopolitical complexities, shedding light on the roles of international actors and their potential responses to the evolving situation.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
U.S.-Israel Coordination and Its Implications for Syria: Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized the strategic partnership between the United States and Israel in their actions within Syria. He explained that this coordinated approach is central to understanding the broader geopolitical objectives in the region. However, he highlighted the significance of Syria’s new regime, which is striving to establish itself as a legitimate and sovereign government. Moving forward, the alignment between Syria and key global actors such as the U.S. and the European Union will shape Israel's operational freedom in the region. These diplomatic recalibrations could either pave the way for greater stability or exacerbate tensions, depending on how the involved parties choose to engage.
Israel’s Expanding Footprint: Prof. Dr. Bağcı described Israel’s advances in Syria as a calculated exploitation of regional instability, likening it to “seizing opportunities in a crisis.” While Israel justifies its actions as necessary for national security, Bağcı argued that the existence of a recognized Syrian central government undermines such claims under international law. He suggested that Israel must begin engaging directly with Syria’s leadership, as unilateral actions could further alienate the international community and potentially lead to unforeseen military and diplomatic consequences.
The Significance of Syria’s Political Transition: Syria’s ongoing political restructuring was a key focus of Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s analysis. He emphasized the importance of recognizing the authority of Syria’s emerging government, which is increasingly gaining legitimacy through international recognition and internal consolidation. Prof. Dr. Bağcı predicted that within a few months, Syria would complete the necessary constitutional and administrative steps to solidify its sovereignty. This would make foreign military operations, including those by Israel and the U.S., far more contentious and diplomatically challenging.
Israel’s Domestic Challenges: Prof. Dr. Bağcı pointed to Israel’s growing internal difficulties, including significant economic pressures and a declining military capacity, as critical factors shaping its strategy in Syria. He noted reports of mass resignations among Israeli military officers and broader dissatisfaction within its armed forces, which could constrain its ability to sustain operations. These domestic challenges, combined with mounting global criticism, may push Israel to adopt a more restrained approach, particularly as Syria continues to strengthen its position both politically and militarily.
The Roles of Global Powers and Regional Actors: Discussing the broader international landscape, Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted the pivotal roles of the United States, Russia, and the European Union in addressing the Israeli-Syrian conflict. He observed that while these powers often act in their own interests, their influence could prove instrumental in fostering dialogue or containing hostilities. He also underlined Turkey’s unique position as both a neighbor to Syria and a significant regional power. Unlike other states in the region, Turkey possesses the capacity and influence to shape the course of events, making its involvement a critical factor in achieving long-term stability.
Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Path to Stability in Syria
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s analysis offers a nuanced perspective on the Israeli-Syrian conflict, highlighting the multifaceted challenges and opportunities for regional and international actors. His insights emphasize the importance of recognizing Syria’s evolving sovereignty while addressing Israel’s security concerns within a framework of international law. Moving forward, the role of major powers and regional stakeholders in facilitating dialogue and mitigating tensions will be pivotal. As Syria transitions toward political consolidation, the choices made by key actors will significantly influence the trajectory of peace and stability in the region.
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