Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes Turkey’s Strategic Influence in Shaping Syria’s Future
On December 15, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, participated in Tele 1 TV’s Türkiye'nin Yönü program hosted by Mehmet Ali Güller. The discussion focused on the evolving situation in Syria and its implications for Turkey and the wider region. Prof. Bağcı offered a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical, military, and sociological dimensions shaping the future of Syria, with particular emphasis on Turkey’s strategic positioning and opportunities.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı
Turkey’s Strategic Significance in the Syrian Crisis: Prof. Bağcı underscored Turkey’s pivotal role as one of the most influential actors in Syria due to its military strength, economic involvement, and sociological ties. He emphasized that Turkey’s contributions have been instrumental in shaping the developments on the ground, earning it recognition as a decisive player. However, he cautioned that "victory" must not lead to complacency or overreach, advocating for a measured, strategic approach to ensure sustainable outcomes.
Future Scenarios for Syria’s Governance Structure: He explored possible trajectories for Syria’s political framework, ranging from federal and confederal models to more centralized governance. Prof. Bağcı expressed optimism that Syria is unlikely to adopt radical structures resembling Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, thanks to its sociological resilience. He warned, however, that missteps could escalate tensions into civil war, highlighting the critical need for Turkey to advocate for a balanced and stable neighbor.
The Role of Key Global and Regional Actors: Prof. Bağcı analyzed the interplay between major powers, including the United States, Russia, and Iran, in shaping Syria’s future. He noted that while Turkey remains a primary influencer, the involvement of Western powers and Israel introduces complexity. He raised concerns about external support for the YPG and discussed the potential realignment of Russia and Iran’s strategies to regain influence in the region.
Rebuilding Diplomatic Ties with Syria: Reopening the Turkish embassy in Damascus was highlighted as a significant step in re-establishing bilateral ties and strengthening Turkey’s regional influence. Prof. Bağcı argued that early diplomatic engagement offers advantages, such as fostering trust and ensuring a central government capable of managing border security—a vital interest for Turkey.
Opportunities Amid Challenges: The ongoing developments present Turkey with opportunities to consolidate its position in the region. Prof. Bağcı emphasized that Turkey’s leadership in supporting stability in Syria, coupled with its focus on preventing the establishment of a Kurdish state in the region, aligns with its long-term strategic interests. However, he cautioned against overextension and stressed the importance of calculated policymaking.
The Importance of Realistic Policy Frameworks: Reflecting on the lessons from the early phases of the Arab Spring, Prof. Bağcı called for pragmatic and realistic approaches to Syria. He emphasized the need for Turkey to work collaboratively with international actors to avoid unilateral risks and to prioritize long-term regional stability over short-term gains.
A Path Forward: Balancing Opportunities and Risks in Turkey’s Role in Syria
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s analysis underscores the multifaceted challenges and opportunities Turkey faces in navigating the evolving dynamics in Syria. As a key regional actor, Turkey’s role extends beyond military presence to include fostering stability, encouraging constructive diplomacy, and mitigating potential risks associated with external influences and internal fragmentation in Syria. By advocating for a pragmatic and forward-looking approach, Prof. Bağcı highlights the importance of measured policies that prioritize regional stability, align with Turkey’s strategic interests, and build trust among international stakeholders. His insights reaffirm Turkey’s capacity to shape a cooperative and secure future in the region, provided it continues to balance ambition with caution.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.