Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes U.S. Middle East Strategy and Regional Dynamics
On January 3, 2025, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his expert insights during EKOL TV’s Okan Ateş ile Gün Ortası hosted by Okan Ateş. The discussion centered on evolving U.S. policies in the Middle East under the new administration and their implications for regional dynamics, including relations with Turkiye and Syria.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
U.S. Strategic Presence in the Middle East: Prof. Bağcı emphasized that the United States is unlikely to withdraw entirely from the Middle East, as such a move contradicts its overarching strategic objectives. While troop numbers might decrease, the U.S. aims to consolidate its influence through diplomacy and military positioning. This continuity ensures its role in shaping outcomes in Syria and maintaining leverage in regional negotiations with key actors like Turkiye.
Turkiye-Syria Rapprochement and U.S. Interests: The evolving relationship between Turkiye and Syria has drawn direct attention from both the United States and Israel. Bağcı noted that the U.S. is closely monitoring how this rapprochement could impact its regional priorities, particularly regarding its ongoing support for the PYD. This raises questions about whether the PYD will maintain autonomy, integrate into the Syrian army, or operate as a distinct entity in a future Syrian constitution.
Challenges in Negotiations with the PYD: The PYD remains a contentious issue in U.S.-Turkiye relations. Turkiye views the PYD as a terrorist organization, a classification not shared by the United States. This divergence complicates efforts to align on counter-terrorism strategies. Meanwhile, the PYD, bolstered by U.S. and Israeli support, continues to focus on safeguarding oil and natural resources in its controlled regions, further solidifying its position as a pivotal player in the region.
Implications for Regional Operations and Agreements: Bağcı highlighted Turkiye's strengthened role following its operations in northern Syria. These operations have significantly bolstered Turkiye's influence in securing its southern borders and countering threats from non-state actors. However, the full unification of the operation zones into a cohesive framework remains a significant challenge, as this objective is potentially complicated by U.S. policies that prioritize maintaining its alliances and influence in the region. Bağcı noted that achieving long-term stability will require a comprehensive agreement between Turkiye and Syria, one that addresses critical issues such as territorial integrity, the integration of armed groups into a unified Syrian military structure, and cooperative approaches to regional security and governance.
Conclusion: Shaping the Future of Middle Eastern Geopolitics through Strategic Alliances and Diplomacy
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s insights highlight the intricate and interdependent dynamics shaping the Middle East, with the U.S. maintaining its strategic presence, Turkiye asserting its regional influence, and Syria navigating internal restructuring amidst external pressures. The evolving relationships between these actors, particularly regarding the PYD and broader regional operations, underscore the delicate balance of power and diplomacy in the region. Moving forward, the outcomes of these negotiations and strategic alignments will play a critical role in determining the Middle East’s geopolitical stability and future trajectory.
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