Watch the segments from 1:56:20 to 2:01:30 | 2:02:55 to 2:08:00 and 2:27:25 to 2:33:20 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı on Israel’s Expanding Military Operations in Lebanon
On September 28, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, appeared on TV100’s Gündem Özel program, hosted by Oya Çebi. The program centered on Israel’s escalating military operations in Lebanon, which have caused growing regional instability. Bağcı, a seasoned expert in international relations and Middle Eastern politics, offered critical analysis on the geopolitical and strategic dimensions of this conflict.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
The Strategic Importance of Netanyahu’s UN Speech: Bağcı emphasized that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent speech at the United Nations General Assembly was pivotal in signaling the next phase of Israel’s military strategy in Lebanon. Netanyahu’s vision to transform the Middle East into a prosperous region with Saudi Arabia’s help underscores Israel’s determination to secure peace with Arab states. Bağcı pointed out that this cooperation, however, directly challenges the interests of Hezbollah and Hamas, viewed as major disruptors of regional stability.
Hezbollah's Waning Power in Lebanon: According to Bağcı, Hezbollah's grip on Lebanon has significantly weakened, particularly as it faces growing opposition from within Lebanon’s diverse political landscape. He noted that while Hezbollah once operated as a de facto state actor, its recent losses, including key personnel, have undermined its authority. Bağcı suggested that this internal shift offers a window for the Lebanese state, with international backing, to reassert control and diminish Hezbollah’s influence.
Iran’s Role and Restraint: Bağcı highlighted that Iran, traditionally a staunch supporter of Hezbollah, is strategically avoiding direct military engagement with Israel. Tehran’s focus on maintaining internal stability amid economic sanctions has tempered its willingness to fully back its regional proxies. Bağcı predicted that Iran’s involvement would be limited to indirect support, as entering a full-scale war could trigger further sanctions and internal unrest, endangering the regime’s survival.
The Technological Divide in Warfare: Israel’s technological superiority was a recurring theme in Bağcı’s analysis. He pointed out how Israel, with support from the U.S. and the West, has leveraged advanced military technologies, particularly in surveillance and communication systems, to outmaneuver non-state actors like Hezbollah. This technological edge, according to Bağcı, exposes a significant vulnerability in Hezbollah’s and Hamas’s capabilities, diminishing their effectiveness in the ongoing conflict.
The Abraham Accords and Shifting Alliances: Bağcı discussed how the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, have reshaped the geopolitical landscape. Arab countries, including those once sympathetic to Hezbollah and Hamas, now prioritize economic development and security partnerships with Israel. This realignment, Bağcı noted, weakens Hezbollah’s regional support and isolates it from the broader Arab world, leaving it increasingly dependent on Iran.
Lebanon's Path Forward: Looking ahead, Bağcı argued that Lebanon’s future hinges on diminishing Hezbollah’s political and military power. He suggested that international support, especially from the U.S., France, and Israel, would be crucial in strengthening the Lebanese state’s ability to control Hezbollah’s activities. With Hezbollah’s influence in decline, Bağcı predicted that Lebanon could experience a period of political stabilization and economic recovery.
Implications for Global Security
In his concluding remarks, Bağcı underscored the broader security implications of the conflict for both the region and the international community. He warned that while Hezbollah’s power may be waning, the group still poses a threat to regional stability, particularly if external actors like Iran seek to revive its strength. Bağcı also cautioned that the ongoing conflict could have ripple effects, exacerbating tensions between Israel and Iran and drawing in other global powers.
Conclusion: Hezbollah and Hamas may not Maintain Their Former Power
It is evident that the dynamics of Israel's expanding military operations in Lebanon are intricately tied to broader geopolitical shifts in the region. Bağcı emphasizes that the evolving role of Hezbollah, in conjunction with Iranian support and the responses of Arab nations, will significantly influence Lebanon's political landscape and regional stability. As the Lebanese state gains time and potential external support, it faces the dual challenge of managing Hezbollah's diminishing influence while navigating the complex interplay of regional and international interests. The anticipated changes signal a critical juncture where both Hezbollah and Hamas may not maintain their former power, paving the way for new political realities in the Middle East. Therefore, understanding these developments is crucial for stakeholders in the region and beyond as they engage in shaping future policies and strategies.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
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