Watch the segments from 06:25 to 12:40 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı on the Ankara Format and Ankara-Damascus Relations
On August 27, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his insights during a segment on the Haber Hattı program presented by Serap Belet on Habertürk. The discussion focused on the evolving dynamics between Turkey and Syria within the context of the Ankara Format, signaling a potential shift in relations amid regional challenges. Below are key takeaways from Bağcı’s remarks on the issue, highlighting the geopolitical and strategic implications for both nations and the broader region.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
The Complex Road to Reconciliation: Prof. Bağcı metaphorically described the current state of Ankara-Damascus relations as a "green light" signaling the possibility of cooperation, but noted the presence of "barricades" that must be overcome. These obstacles primarily concern border security and the role of non-state actors like the PKK and YPG, which remain a critical issue for Turkey. Bağcı emphasized that, while talks between Turkey and Syria are inevitable, concrete steps to address mutual security concerns are essential before meaningful progress can be achieved.
Turkey’s Strategic Military Presence: Bağcı highlighted the strategic necessity of Turkey’s continued military presence in northern Syria, particularly in the context of maintaining order amidst the destabilizing influence of groups like the PKK and YPG. He argued that the Syrian central government is currently incapable of addressing these threats alone, making Turkey's presence essential. Additionally, Bağcı pointed out that while the situation requires collaboration, Syria must understand that Turkish troops are unlikely to withdraw until a comprehensive security framework is in place.
Russia’s Role as a Mediator: According to Bağcı, Russia is playing an increasingly active role in the Ankara-Damascus dialogue, positioning itself as a key mediator. This involvement reflects a broader Russian strategy of consolidating influence in the region. Bağcı noted that, unlike previous negotiations, Moscow’s mediation is primarily driven by Syria’s demands, signaling a shift in regional power dynamics. Turkey must navigate this new reality while considering its broader geopolitical interests, especially in relation to Iran’s evolving stance in the region.
Shifting Middle Eastern Alliances: Bağcı discussed the emerging geopolitical triangle between Turkey, Russia, and Egypt, set to influence the future of Syria. He drew attention to an upcoming meeting between Turkish President Erdoğan and Egyptian President Sisi, stressing that the alignment of these three nations could significantly reshape Syria’s strategic landscape. Bağcı’s analysis placed particular importance on Egypt’s involvement, noting that while Syria remains central to regional conflict dynamics, its economic and political stability is also crucial for future peace efforts.
Economic Ties and Refugee Return: A major focus of Bağcı’s remarks was on the economic dimensions of the Ankara-Damascus relationship, particularly concerning the potential return of Syrian refugees. He emphasized that Syria’s fragile economy cannot support the return of millions of displaced people without substantial international assistance and economic cooperation with Turkey. Bağcı argued that restoring economic ties and securing safe corridors, such as the M4 route, is key to ensuring a sustainable refugee return and rebuilding Syria’s war-torn infrastructure.
Security Cooperation as the Key to Stability: Bağcı underscored the necessity of security cooperation between Turkey and Syria to stabilize their shared border. He stressed that Turkey’s priority remains preventing cross-border attacks and neutralizing threats from militant groups. Bağcı also highlighted the importance of international actors like the United Nations in monitoring and facilitating these security arrangements. Such cooperation, he argued, will be pivotal for long-term stability and rebuilding trust between Ankara and Damascus.
Urgency for Direct Diplomatic Engagement: In concluding his analysis, Bağcı called for immediate and direct diplomatic engagement between Turkey and Syria. He dismissed the idea of incremental progress, stressing that time is running out for both nations to address their shared security and economic challenges. Bağcı emphasized that negotiations must move quickly and decisively, as small steps will not be sufficient to navigate the complex issues at hand.
Conclusion: Pressing Need for Actionable Policies and Robust International Cooperation
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı's insights on the Ankara Format signal a pivotal moment in the evolving relationship between Turkey and Syria. His analysis underscores the critical need for a strategic and coordinated approach to address both security and economic challenges. With Turkey's military presence and Russia’s mediating role at the forefront, the path forward involves urgent and direct diplomatic engagement. As both nations grapple with complex issues such as refugee returns and border security, the coming months will be crucial in determining the stability and future of Ankara-Damascus relations. Prof. Bağcı’s perspective highlights the pressing need for actionable policies and robust international cooperation to navigate this intricate geopolitical landscape.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.