Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Provides Key Insights on Escalation between Hezbollah and Israel
On August 25, 2024, during an insightful appearance on Habertürk Haber Bülteni, presented by Ela Rumeysa Cebeci, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his expert analysis on the escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. His in-depth examination of the situation offered crucial perspectives on the broader implications of the conflict, particularly for political decision-makers and international stakeholders.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Nature of the Conflict
Prof. Bağcı highlighted the distinct nature of the ongoing conflict, explaining that it is not a conventional war between two states, but a confrontation between Israel, a recognized state, and Hezbollah, a non-state actor. This distinction, he noted, complicates the legal and diplomatic responses. Bağcı also pointed out that while many perceive the situation as a Lebanon-Israel conflict, it is important to recognize that Hezbollah operates independently within Lebanon, and Israel’s military actions are aimed at Hezbollah, not the Lebanese state itself.
U.S. Involvement and Support for Israel
Bağcı emphasized that Israel's actions are strongly supported by the United States, with high-level U.S. officials, including the Secretary of Defense and President Biden, openly backing Israel. This alliance strengthens Israel’s military and political position in the conflict. Bağcı also noted that Hezbollah’s animosity is directed more towards Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s policies rather than the Israeli public, with Hezbollah portraying Netanyahu as a key adversary in the region.
Technology and Defense Capabilities
According to Bağcı, Israel’s advanced defense systems have played a pivotal role in mitigating the impact of Hezbollah’s missile attacks, particularly the Katyusha rockets. He observed that Israel’s technological superiority has allowed it to intercept and destroy missiles mid-air, significantly reducing the potential damage. This defense capability has given Israel a strategic advantage, allowing it to limit civilian casualties and infrastructure damage during this phase of the conflict.
Hezbollah’s Limitations
Bağcı asserted that despite Hezbollah’s aggressive stance, its military capabilities are no match for Israel’s. He noted that Hezbollah's attacks, while disruptive, have not inflicted significant damage on Israel. Prof. Bağcı underlined that Hezbollah’s primary support comes from Iran, but without direct Iranian involvement or resources, Hezbollah's ability to sustain or escalate the conflict remains limited. This dynamic, he said, keeps the conflict contained to a regional level without spiraling into a larger war involving state actors like Iran.
Diplomatic Efforts and Regional Dynamics
Bağcı discussed the ongoing diplomatic efforts, particularly the prisoner exchange negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Qatar, signaling that diplomacy is still a vital tool in the Middle East. He also remarked on the noticeable silence of key Arab states, suggesting that their lack of public support for Hezbollah reflects a broader geopolitical calculation to avoid being drawn into the conflict. This, he argued, indicates a shift in regional alliances and priorities, with Arab nations prioritizing stability over active participation in the conflict.
Iran’s Role and Strategic Calculations
Iran’s involvement in the conflict was another focal point of Bağcı’s analysis. He suggested that while Hezbollah relies on Iran for ideological and military backing, Iran itself is unlikely to engage directly with Israel. Bağcı explained that an open conflict between Iran and Israel would destabilize the entire Middle East, something that neither regional powers nor global actors like China and Russia would support. He predicted that Iran would instead continue to exert its influence through proxy groups like Hezbollah, avoiding direct military confrontation.
Future Outlook
Prof. Bağcı concluded his remarks by stating that while the conflict will likely continue in the near term, it is unlikely to escalate into a full-scale war involving Lebanon or Iran. He expressed skepticism about Israel’s ability to completely eliminate Hezbollah, noting that the group has deeply entrenched support within Lebanon and backing from Iran.
Conclusion: The Conflict will likely Remain a long-term Regional Issue with Periodic Flare-ups rather than a Definitive Solution
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı's analysis underscores the complex dynamics of the current Hezbollah-Israel conflict. While the clash remains primarily a localized confrontation between a state and a non-state actor, the involvement of external actors like the U.S. and Iran adds layers of geopolitical significance. Bağcı's insights reveal that despite the escalation, the conflict's containment and limited direct impact on broader regional stability are likely, as key players manage their strategic interests. Understanding these nuances is crucial for international stakeholders as they navigate the evolving landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics and security.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.