Watch the segments from 14:55 to 24:40 | 1:02:00 to 1:13:25 and 1:31:45 to 1:42:40 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Visit to Türkiye and its Implications on Migration and Bilateral Relations
On October 26, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, appeared on Kanal Avrupa’s Bakış Açısı program presented by Erdal Tekin, where he offered valuable insights into German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to Türkiye. The visit, following the recent EU Summit, reflects a pivotal moment in Türkiye-EU relations as both sides navigate complex migration challenges, economic concerns, and regional security. Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s remarks underscored Türkiye's strategic importance in Europe’s migration policy and the broader geopolitical dynamics influencing Germany’s role in the region.
Key Points from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s Remarks:
Türkiye’s Role as a Migration Barrier for Europe: Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted Türkiye's essential role as a "migration dam" for Europe, with Türkiye managing significant migration waves to prevent further flows into Europe. He noted that the EU, especially Germany, relies heavily on Türkiye to contain these flows, providing financial support to mitigate migration pressures. Bağcı emphasized that as migration remains a contentious issue in both domestic and European politics, it influences electoral outcomes across Europe. Türkiye’s open stance on migration, as expressed by President Erdoğan, will likely prompt intensified EU cooperation to address mutual concerns.
Critique of the 2016 EU-Türkiye Migration Agreement: Prof. Dr. Bağcı offered a critical view of the 2016 migration agreement between the EU and Türkiye, calling it one of the “most disadvantageous” deals Türkiye has signed. He pointed out that while the agreement secures EU financial support, it places Türkiye in a position of heavy responsibility for containing migration. According to Bağcı, Germany’s renewed diplomatic outreach, represented by Scholz’s visit, underscores Europe’s reliance on Türkiye amid ongoing instability in the Middle East, particularly with conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon adding to regional pressures.
Germany’s Internal Political Shifts and Economic Pressures: Prof. Dr. Bağcı observed that Germany itself is undergoing significant political and economic challenges, which shape its foreign policy stance, including towards Türkiye. He discussed how rising inflation and economic strain in Germany are pushing voters towards alternative parties like the AfD, with expectations of governmental shifts in upcoming elections. Scholz’s diplomatic efforts in Türkiye, therefore, reflect Germany’s need to stabilize relations externally while managing internal social and economic divisions, with migration being a central point of concern in these domestic debates.
Potential Shifts in EU-Türkiye Relations Amid Broader Geopolitical Tensions: Bağcı also contextualized Scholz’s visit within the broader geopolitical landscape, citing recent talks among major European leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Germany. He highlighted how the Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Gaza situation have increased Europe’s strategic reliance on Türkiye, not only as a migration buffer but also as a regional partner. He predicted that Türkiye’s geopolitical value would continue to rise, particularly as European countries look to secure new alliances and reinforce stability in an increasingly volatile global environment
Türkiye’s Strategic Balance Between East and West: Prof. Bağcı emphasized Türkiye’s historical and cultural transformation from an empire to a modern state aligned with Western values, which now serves as a crucial bridge between Western and emerging global powers. He highlighted how Türkiye’s approach—incorporating its own strategic intellectuality and political maneuvers within a framework of Western alignment—enables it to adapt in today’s multipolar world. As countries like China, Russia, and others in the Global South form new alliances, Bağcı argued that Türkiye’s ability to balance relationships with both Western institutions and BRICS-like formations could prove essential for navigating future geopolitical shifts.
The Erosion of Western Universal Values and the Rise of Alternative Models: Addressing a key theme of his remarks, Bağcı observed a growing perception that Western values, once promoted as universal, are losing their global appeal, particularly in the Global South. He cited recent BRICS expansions and China’s Belt and Road initiatives as alternative development models that attract nations seeking faster, less ideologically restrictive partnerships. By financing infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, China provides a counterpoint to Western aid structures, which Bağcı noted can be slow-moving. He explained that the West's struggle to reconcile its traditional values with a multipolar world could further alienate it from emerging powers.
European Union’s Challenges Amidst the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: Prof. Bağcı discussed how the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significantly strained EU unity and economic stability, especially in Germany. Highlighting the historical dependency of Germany on Russian natural gas, he noted that recent sanctions have disrupted these longstanding economic ties, pushing Germany and other EU nations to reconsider their energy dependencies. Bağcı suggested that such tensions, combined with the rising influence of far-right movements across Europe, could accelerate the EU’s internal divergence, potentially affecting its cohesion in facing global challenges. Türkiye, Bağcı argued, benefits by maintaining a balanced stance on sanctions, reflecting its nuanced foreign policy.
Conclusion: As Europe Grapples with Internal and External Pressures, Türkiye’s Cooperation Remains Central to the EU’s Long-term Strategies
Chancellor Scholz’s visit, in Bağcı’s analysis, underscores the EU’s acknowledgment of Türkiye’s crucial role as a regional stabilizer. While the 2016 EU-Türkiye Migration Agreement has placed significant responsibility on Türkiye, it has also solidified Türkiye's importance to European security, especially in light of ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Moreover, the evolving political and economic pressures in Germany, compounded by domestic instability, emphasize the need for strong external relations, with migration at the forefront of political debates. As Türkiye navigates its strategic balancing act between East and West, its ability to engage with both Western institutions and emerging global powers like China and Russia will shape its future role in a multipolar world.
Bağcı also noted the erosion of Western universal values, pointing to the rise of alternative models from the Global South as potential challenges to Europe's traditional influence. With the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict exacerbating EU internal divisions, Türkiye's balanced foreign policy offers a stabilizing force, positioning it as an essential partner in addressing both regional and global challenges. As Europe grapples with internal and external pressures, Türkiye’s cooperation remains central to the EU’s long-term strategies, marking a pivotal juncture for EU-Türkiye relations in addressing both migration and regional security.
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