Part 1 (for Part 2, see the embedded video below)
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Discusses the Complex Dynamics of Middle East Conflicts and the Role of the West
On October 26, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, participated in Sözcü TV’s Nokta Atışı program, hosted by İpek Özbey. The discussion centered on the ongoing conflicts in Israel and Iran, the influence of the United States and the West, and the broader implications for global security and the Middle East. Bağcı provided valuable insights on the geopolitical dynamics, highlighting the interplay between global powers, regional conflicts, and economic consequences.
The key points from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s remarks:
U.S. Influence on Israeli Actions and Global Reactions: Bağcı emphasized the role of the United States in shaping Israeli policy, noting that U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent meetings with European leaders revealed growing tensions between Israel’s military actions and the international public’s response. Bağcı pointed out that while Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon face increasing criticism, especially from European governments, there is little chance for substantial international opposition without a shift in U.S. policy. The U.S. holds a pivotal position in enabling Israeli operations, reinforcing the idea that U.S.-Israel relations function much like a father-son dynamic, where Israeli actions are often backed by Washington.
Strategic Conflict: Israel vs. Iran and Its Regional Impact: According to Bağcı, the conflict between Israel and Iran is strategically significant for the Middle East and global security. He noted that this conflict has already affected global oil markets, with Iran's control over vital oil routes, such as the Basra Gulf, posing a direct risk to the economies of Europe and Japan. Bağcı explained that should Iran decide to close these vital passages, the global oil supply could face significant disruptions, further escalating tensions and potentially destabilizing the world economy.
Arab Countries’ Role in Middle East Security: Bağcı discussed the shifting priorities of Arab countries, particularly the Gulf nations, in the context of the Israel-Iran conflict. He emphasized that while Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, have strong security concerns, they do not want to see a direct war between Israel and Iran. Their focus is on weakening Hezbollah and Hamas to alleviate Israel’s security threats. This approach, Bağcı suggested, allows Arab countries to avoid directly confronting Israel while strengthening their own positions in the region, especially as they pursue rapid development in areas like women's rights and economic growth.
The Trump Factor: Potential Shifts in U.S. Foreign Policy: Bağcı predicted that if Donald Trump were to return to power, significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy could occur. Specifically, he suggested that Trump’s business-oriented approach to governance could lead to a recalibration of U.S. support for Israel and a potential change in the direction of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Bağcı contrasted this with the bureaucratic style of traditional U.S. leaders, highlighting that Trump’s decisions might disrupt the long-standing U.S. diplomatic stance in the Middle East, especially concerning Israel's regional ambitions.
The Role of BRICS and Global South in Middle East Dynamics: In his analysis of global power shifts, Bağcı pointed to the increasing influence of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and their potential to counterbalance Western power. He noted that while BRICS nations have the military and economic capacity to challenge Israel, they remain hesitant to take direct action due to the risk of provoking the U.S. and NATO allies. Bağcı acknowledged that while the West's values are being increasingly challenged by these rising powers, they still hold significant sway over global economic structures, which complicates the dynamics of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Israel’s Violations of International Law and Its Global Position: Bağcı was critical of Israel's actions, stating that Israel has violated international law and the conscience of the global public. Despite this, he observed that Israel continues to enjoy support from the U.S. and the West, which allows it to act with relative impunity. Bağcı discussed the failure of international organizations to hold Israel accountable, pointing to the lack of serious consequences at global forums like the BRICS summit, where Israel's actions are often overlooked in favor of broader political concerns.
Turkey’s Strategic Position in an Evolving World Order: Bağcı concluded with a reflection on Turkey’s foreign policy strategy, noting that Turkey’s balanced approach between the West and emerging powers such as the BRICS countries positions it uniquely in global geopolitics. He praised Turkey’s efforts to engage with both NATO and the European Union while simultaneously exploring new partnerships in the Global South. Bağcı cautioned that Turkey should avoid repeating past mistakes, such as the one made in 1949 when Turkey distanced itself from the Asia-Africa Conference. By adopting a more flexible and pragmatic foreign policy, Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in an increasingly multipolar world order.
Conclusion:
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s insights highlighted the multifaceted nature of the Middle East conflicts, particularly the dynamics between Israel, Iran, and global powers. He emphasized that the U.S. remains a central actor in supporting Israeli policies, while regional players like Saudi Arabia and other Arab states maneuver to protect their interests without direct confrontation. Bağcı stresses that despite the dire implications of these conflicts, including potential disruptions to the global economy, particularly oil prices, no side seems poised for a full-scale war at present.
Bağcı also outlined the shifting global order, with the BRICS countries emerging as influential players, and stressed the importance of Turkey’s diplomatic agility in navigating these complexities. As Turkey navigates this complex terrain, Bağcı suggests that it is crucial for the country to adopt a balanced foreign policy, aligning with Western values while exploring new avenues for cooperation within the Global South and BRICS framework. The situation in the Middle East, according to Bağcı, remains fluid, and the results of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections could significantly reshape the region’s future trajectory, potentially altering Israel's strategies and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Part 2
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