Watch the segments from 0:03:45 to 0:09:15 | 0:33:35 to 0:40:10 | 0:55:15 to 0:59:40 and 2:08:35 to 2:17:50 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Explores Israel’s Cyber Warfare and Escalation in the Middle East
On September 18, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, the co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, participated in Habertürk's "Nedir Ne Değildir" program presented by Faruk Aksoy, where the discussion focused on Israel’s cyber warfare capabilities and the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Prof. Bağcı provided deep insights into Israel's strategic military posture, the role of Hezbollah, and the potential geopolitical shifts emerging from these conflicts.
Key Insights from Hüseyin Bağcı:
Israel’s Technological Supremacy in Warfare: Prof. Bağcı emphasized Israel's technological advantage, describing the current conflict as a "technology war," with a heavy reliance on artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities. He noted that Israel's capacity for high-precision, long-range attacks, including the use of advanced missile systems like Tomahawks, places it in a dominant position. Israel's technological superiority is not only a defense mechanism but also an offensive tool, allowing it to respond swiftly and decisively to threats near its borders, particularly from Hezbollah.
The Geopolitical Stakes of the Conflict: According to Prof. Bağcı, Israel's military strategy goes beyond defending its borders—it is intricately linked to the interests of Western powers, notably the United States and the European Union. He pointed out that Israel's alliances provide it with significant diplomatic leverage in international forums like the United Nations, despite widespread opposition from many countries. This international support ensures that Israel can act with a degree of impunity, making it unlikely to back down in the face of regional adversaries like Hezbollah and Iran.
Hezbollah’s Position and Limitations: Prof. Bağcı explored Hezbollah’s role, identifying it as a non-state actor heavily supported by Iran but lacking the military infrastructure to pose a real existential threat to Israel. He drew historical parallels, suggesting that Israel's actions might force Hezbollah out of Lebanon, similar to how the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was relocated to Tunisia in the past. Despite Hezbollah's rhetoric and military posturing, Bağcı argued that it is unlikely to challenge Israel on a scale that would lead to a full-blown conflict, especially without direct Arab state support.
The Broader Middle Eastern Response: In his analysis, Prof. Bağcı underscored the conspicuous absence of support for Hezbollah from Arab nations, particularly those in the Gulf region. He remarked that the Arab countries view Iran, Hezbollah's main backer, as a significant threat to their own security, which has led to their reluctance to engage in the conflict. This lack of regional solidarity further weakens Hezbollah's position, isolating it as a proxy force primarily for Iran’s interests rather than a unified Arab cause.
Hamas and the Shifting Palestinian Cause: Prof. Bağcı highlighted that Hamas, as a non-state actor, has gradually overshadowed the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in its significance, particularly since its rise to power in 2006. He pointed out that Hamas’ political charter, which calls for the removal of Israel, has placed it in direct opposition to Israel and solidified U.S. support for Israel. This divergence from the PLO's more diplomatic approach has led to broader complications, as the Arab world distances itself from the Palestinian cause to pursue its own national interests.
The Abraham Accords and Arab-Israeli Relations: According to Prof. Bağcı, the Abraham Accords marked a pivotal shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with Arab states recognizing Israel in exchange for security assurances and economic benefits. He emphasized the strategic importance of this agreement, noting how it solidified Israel's position as a recognized state by several Arab countries. This recognition has reshaped the traditional Arab-Israeli conflict, creating new opportunities for cooperation but also drawing clearer lines against shared threats like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran’s Role and Hezbollah’s Waning Influence: Bağcı also analyzed Iran’s position, noting that despite its backing of Hezbollah, Arab countries, particularly in the Gulf, are reluctant to involve themselves in conflicts that might threaten their regimes or economic interests. He argued that Hezbollah, while still a significant force, may find itself increasingly isolated as regional powers prioritize stability over revolutionary ideals. He speculated that Iran might ultimately sacrifice Hezbollah to avoid escalating tensions with Israel, which would strain its already precarious economic and political standing.
The Economic and Strategic Future of Gaza: In discussing the future of Gaza, Bağcı predicted that Israel’s control over the region could lead to the opening of new economic corridors and trade routes, potentially transforming the area. However, he stressed that such developments would depend on the neutralization of Hamas and Hezbollah as military threats. Bağcı likened the situation to historical evacuations in Spain, where the strategic relocation of populations was seen as essential for territorial control. He cautioned that the cost of continued conflict would be high for all parties involved, including Arab states, Israel, and the broader international community.
Conclusion: Technology Wars and Realingments Will Determine the Future Balance of Power in the Region
Prof. Bağcı concluded that the unfolding events mark a new era of warfare, driven by advanced technologies and geopolitical complexities by framing the current conflict as part of a broader “technology war.” He argued that Israel, with the backing of the U.S. and its technological superiority, will remain a dominant force in the region. Meanwhile, Arab countries will continue to distance themselves from non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah, focusing instead on securing their own economic and political futures. However, Hezbollah's next steps, and the broader reactions from Iran and Arab countries, will determine the future balance of power in the region. The Middle East, he predicted, will see ongoing realignments as global powers like China and the U.S. maintain their strategic interests in the region’s stability.
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