Watch the segments from 00:00 to 08:20 and 13:05 to 17:50 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Provides Insights on Israel’s Strikes on Hezbollah and the Future of the Middle East
On September 22, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, was featured as a guest on Habertürk TV’s “Nedir Ne Değildir” program, hosted by Faruk Aksoy. The discussion centered around Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah and the broader implications for the future of the Middle East. Prof. Bağcı’s remarks provided a sharp analysis of the region's current geopolitical complexities, highlighting the role of global powers and the evolving nature of international law.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
The Erosion of International Law and Its Consequences: Prof. Bağcı emphasized the growing disconnection between international law and its practical enforcement. Despite the existence of a framework established after 1945, Prof. Bağcı noted that global norms are often ignored when it comes to conflicts involving smaller nations like Israel, especially when backed by powerful allies such as the United States. He suggested that the inability of international institutions to effectively intervene in crises raises questions about the future evolution of international law, especially in conflict zones like Gaza and Lebanon.
Regional Reluctance to Intervene in the Middle East: Bağcı highlighted how regional and global powers, including Russia and China, are hesitant to intervene in Middle Eastern conflicts, especially when it involves Israel. This reluctance stems from the geopolitical reality that direct confrontation with Israel often means challenging the United States and the broader Western bloc. Bağcı pointed out that Arab nations, too, are largely passive, preferring to observe from the sidelines rather than engage directly. This dynamic leaves the region in a state of ongoing tension, with no country willing to escalate the conflict further.
The Future Role of Iran and Hezbollah: Bağcı underscored the restrained position of Iran in the current conflict, noting that while Tehran continues to showcase its military capabilities through missiles and drones, it has yet to make any decisive move in support of Hezbollah. Bağcı expressed skepticism about Iran’s willingness to engage directly in a war with Israel, recognizing that neither Russia nor China would support such an escalation. This leaves Hezbollah, much like Hamas, in a precarious position, with their actions being framed as part of a broader "out-of-state" organization, disconnected from the broader Arab world’s leadership.
Israel’s Strategic Caution and Military Aims: Prof. Bağcı underscored that Israel’s recent military operations are aimed more at neutralizing Hezbollah's military capabilities rather than pursuing an occupation of Lebanon. He emphasized that Lebanon’s status as an independent state, and the opposition of Western powers like the United States and the European Union to occupation, have led Israel to adopt a cautious approach. According to Bağcı, Israel does not perceive a strategic gain from occupying Lebanon, focusing instead on containing Hezbollah’s threat through targeted military actions.
The Role of External Powers and Regional Actors: Prof. Bağcı highlighted the delicate balance of international relations influencing the conflict. He pointed out that Israel enjoys substantial backing from the United States, making it unlikely that regional powers, including Iran, would escalate tensions further. Bağcı also mentioned the unique geopolitical dynamics, where the Gulf states, traditionally opposing Hezbollah and Hamas, align with Israel. This creates a complex web of alliances, where non-state actors like Hezbollah are viewed as threats to regional economic stability, further complicating international intervention.
Turkey’s Evolving Geopolitical Stance: In a broader context, Bağcı elaborated on Turkey’s shifting foreign policy. He described Turkey as a rising regional power, carefully navigating its role between Western alliances and new relationships with BRICS and other global south nations. Bağcı noted Turkey’s expanding diplomatic engagement in conflict resolution, from mediating between Russia and Ukraine to playing a pivotal role in regional peace talks. He emphasized Turkey’s strategic importance and its desire to recalibrate relations with key players like Israel and Syria, particularly after recent high-level diplomatic engagements.
Conclusion: Global Institutions Struggle to Enforce Norms while Israel Preserves Strategic Caution
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s insights highlight the intricate geopolitical realities shaping the Middle East today. He emphasizes Israel's strategic caution, aimed at curbing Hezbollah’s influence without engaging in direct occupation, while pointing out the reluctance of regional powers like Iran, Russia, and China to escalate the conflict. Bağcı also underscores the weakening of international law in managing such crises, as global institutions struggle to enforce norms, especially when powerful actors like the U.S. are involved. Finally, he outlines Turkey's evolving role as a mediator and rising power in the region, increasingly involved in conflict resolution and recalibrating its relations with key stakeholders like Israel and Syria.
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