Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Discusses Israel’s Strategy and Hezbollah’s Organizational Challenges
On September 29, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, appeared on Habertürk TV’s Burası Haftasonu program presented by Ela Rümeysa Cebeci. The program addressed Israel’s military strategies and Hezbollah’s current organizational challenges. Prof. Bağcı provided in-depth analysis on the regional dynamics, the geopolitical impacts of the conflict, and how the international community, especially the United States and the European Union, are positioned in the evolving situation.
Key Insights form Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Israel’s Focus on Weakening Hezbollah: Prof. Bağcı emphasized that Israel's strategy is centered on weakening Hezbollah as part of its broader objective of neutralizing threats on its borders. By extending its campaign beyond Hamas to Hezbollah, Israel aims to create a security buffer and eliminate military threats that have long destabilized the region. Netanyahu's recent UN speech reinforced Israel’s resolve to ensure that neither Hezbollah nor Hamas can launch attacks that compromise Israeli sovereignty.
The Complex Role of Iran in the Conflict: Bağcı highlighted Iran’s significant influence over Hezbollah, noting that the organization functions as an armed proxy of Tehran rather than representing the Lebanese state. Iran’s strategy involves supporting Hezbollah to project power across the region. However, Israel's targeted strikes on Hezbollah serve as a way to challenge Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.
Western Alignment with Israel: According to Bağcı, Western nations, particularly the U.S. and the EU, have shown unambiguous support for Israel's military operations. He noted that the West views Israel’s security as intertwined with its own, especially as the U.S. continues to provide unconditional backing to Israel. Bağcı pointed out that this strategic alliance further complicates the international response to the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.
Geopolitical Ramifications for the Middle East: Prof. Bağcı identified the larger geopolitical picture, emphasizing that while regional powers like Russia and China remain silent on the issue, the conflict could have lasting impacts on the balance of power in the Middle East. He pointed out that the instability stemming from Hezbollah’s activities could lead to shifts in alliances and a more militarized regional order, with Israel and the West seeking to curtail Iran’s sphere of influence.
Hezbollah’s Organizational Structure and Challenges: Hezbollah, as Bağcı explained, is the most powerful political group in Lebanon today, largely due to its military strength. However, he cautioned that the group is facing serious internal challenges, especially in the face of Israel’s sophisticated technological and military strategies. Israel’s intelligence capabilities and precision strikes have significantly weakened Hezbollah’s leadership, leaving the organization vulnerable to further destabilization.
Iran’s Dilemma in Escalating the Conflict: While Iran plays a central role in backing Hezbollah, Bağcı argued that Tehran is hesitant to escalate the conflict by declaring open war on Israel. Such an action would provoke a broader international response, drawing in Western powers and possibly leading to widespread geopolitical consequences in the region. Prof. Bağcı predicted that Iran would continue to provide covert support to Hezbollah but avoid direct military confrontation.
The Potential for Continued Conflict: Bağcı closed his analysis by forecasting that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely to abate in the short term. As long as Israel perceives Hezbollah as a significant military threat, the cycle of aggression will continue. He also suggested that the situation will be influenced by the outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections, as American policy toward Israel remains steadfast regardless of the administration in power.
Conclusion: Israel’s Strategy Aims to Curtail Iran's Growing Influence Across the Middle East as Broader Regional Silence from key Arab States Continues
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı highlighted the deep-rooted complexities of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, emphasizing its far-reaching geopolitical implications. He pointed out that Israel’s strategy to weaken Hezbollah, with significant backing from the United States and the European Union, aims to curtail Iran's growing influence across the Middle East. Bağcı also underscored the broader regional silence from key Arab states, reflecting their hesitation to engage directly in this volatile power struggle. As Israel continues to leverage advanced military technologies, Bağcı warned of the escalating humanitarian crises and the shifting balance of power in the region. Ultimately, he asserted that the conflict is not just a localized issue but a critical front in the broader contest between Western and Iranian interests, with global ramifications.
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