Watch the segments from 4:56:00 to 5:04:30 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı on Escalating Conflict in the Middle East and Israel’s Call for Evacuation of South Beirut
On September 30, 2024, during Habertürk TV's Nedir Ne Değildir program hosted by Faruk Aksoy, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his expert analysis on the escalating conflict in the Middle East, focusing on Israel’s call for the evacuation of South Beirut. In a discussion led by Faruk Aksoy, Bağcı provided valuable insights into the regional implications of this development, examining the complex geopolitical dynamics involving Israel, Hezbollah, and broader international actors.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Netanyahu's Strategic Vision for the Middle East: Bağcı highlighted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's recent address at the United Nations, where he underscored the necessity of eliminating Hezbollah and Hamas. According to Bağcı, Netanyahu’s vision extends beyond military objectives; it includes creating a new economic order in the Middle East, with the Abraham Accords playing a pivotal role. Netanyahu’s vision positions Israel as a central player, cooperating with countries like Saudi Arabia to transform the region economically while marginalizing non-state actors like Hezbollah.
The Role of Iran in the Middle Eastern Equation: Prof. Bağcı emphasized Iran's influence through its support of Hezbollah, noting that Tehran’s growing power in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen is a concern for Israel and its Western allies. He explained that Israel’s aggressive stance is aimed at curbing this influence, with backing from the U.S., the U.K., and other European countries. Iran’s potential political shifts, coupled with Israel's pressure, are critical factors shaping the region’s future.
Hezbollah’s Declining Influence and Israel’s Strategic Advantage: Bağcı pointed out that Israel’s operations have significantly weakened Hezbollah’s high-level leadership, marking a strategic victory. By pressuring the Lebanese army to withdraw from key positions, Israel has gained operational freedom in South Beirut. Bağcı also drew attention to the United Nations' passive stance, as peacekeeping forces have been ordered not to intervene, highlighting the geopolitical complexities of the conflict.
Western Silence on Israel’s Actions: A notable point in Bağcı’s analysis was the silence of Western civil society and human rights organizations regarding Israel’s military actions. He explained that this “strategic silence” reflects the West’s prioritization of its alliances with Israel, particularly the U.S.’s unconditional support. This alignment, Bağcı argued, is part of a broader global strategy to secure Israel’s dominance in the region.
The U.S. and Israel’s Unbreakable Alliance: Prof. Bağcı reiterated that Israel remains the only country in the Middle East that enjoys unwavering U.S. support, regardless of changes in American leadership. He suggested that this alliance, solidified under both Democratic and Republican administrations, guarantees Israel’s security and positions it as the U.S.’s most reliable partner in the region, especially in the context of military and economic cooperation.
Turkey’s Shifting Role in the Middle East: Bağcı commented on Turkey’s historical role in the region, suggesting that the country is gradually stepping back from its previous positions. He referenced Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent speech, which indicates a diminishing appetite for direct involvement in conflicts like the one in Lebanon. This reflects a broader realignment of Turkey’s Middle Eastern policy, as it seeks to avoid entanglements in the region’s growing instability.
Iran's Calculated Approach to Conflict with Israel: According to Bağcı, Iran remains cautious about engaging in direct conflict with Israel, despite escalating tensions. He suggested that Israel's aggressive rhetoric towards Iran, particularly from Netanyahu, serves as a warning. Israel’s threat of economic, military, and political consequences, backed by Western powers, is likely deterring Iran from escalating the conflict further, ensuring a delicate balance of power in the region.
Conclusion: As Western Silence Continues and Turkey Steps Back from Direct Involvement, Israel's Strategic Maneuvering Creates a more Favorable Environment for its Long-term Goals
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s insights underscore the critical juncture at which the Middle East finds itself. Israel’s assertive military actions, backed by unwavering U.S. and European support, aim to reshape the regional balance of power by diminishing Hezbollah's influence and pressuring Iran into a more passive role. As Western silence continues and Turkey steps back from direct involvement, Israel's strategic maneuvering creates a more favorable environment for its long-term goals. Bağcı’s analysis highlights that while the region remains volatile, Israel’s geopolitical strategy is steadily advancing, with significant implications for regional actors and the global stage.
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