Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Explores the Geopolitical Implications of a Possible Erdoğan-Esad Meeting
On July 7, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, participated in a televised discussion on Çetiner Çetin ile Habertürk Gündem. The topic of the program centered around the prospect of a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a pivotal development in regional politics. Prof. Bağcı’s remarks shed light on the complex dynamics surrounding the potential meeting, its geopolitical ramifications, and the evolving Turkish-Syrian relationship.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
1. The Necessity of Direct Leadership Dialogue: Prof. Bağcı stressed that while indirect talks through foreign ministers and intermediaries have occurred, the most effective way to address the longstanding issues between Turkey and Syria is for the two leaders, Erdoğan and Assad, to meet face-to-face. He pointed out that avoiding direct communication has only compounded the complexity of the conflict, and that now both sides appear ready for such a dialogue, recognizing the urgency and necessity of resolving the tension.
2. Turkey’s Changing Geopolitical Landscape: Bağcı highlighted the broader regional and global context influencing this meeting, particularly Turkey’s strategic ties with Russia and its emerging role within the BRICS framework. He noted that cooperation with Russia, especially in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war, places Turkey in a unique position of influence. As the U.S. prepares for upcoming elections, Turkey’s ability to maintain diplomatic and military leverage in Syria is crucial for its regional standing.
3. Syria’s Reintegration into the Arab League: Prof. Bağcı identified Assad’s recent return to the Arab League as a crucial turning point. Syria’s re-entry into this regional body, after years of exclusion, reflects shifting regional alliances driven by larger geopolitical pressures. Bağcı remarked that Assad's Arab identity remains intact despite his years-long estrangement from the league, and that cooperation with Turkey could further enhance stability in the region, both politically and economically.
4. Challenges of Terrorism and Military Presence: Bağcı emphasized the critical nature of Turkish-Syrian cooperation in the fight against terrorism, particularly in northern Syria where multiple factions, including the YPG and other groups, complicate the security landscape. He noted that Turkey’s military presence in Syria has been labeled as an "occupation" by some, but from Ankara’s perspective, it is a necessary counterterrorism effort. A direct agreement with Assad would strengthen Turkey’s legitimacy in maintaining its operations and secure broader international recognition of its role in stabilizing the region.
5. Impact on U.S. and Western Policies: The professor also touched upon the challenges posed by Western involvement in Syria, particularly from the United States. Bağcı suggested that if Donald Trump were to win the U.S. presidency, a shift in American policy toward Syria could be expected, potentially leading to a decrease in U.S. engagement in the region. He highlighted that U.S. support for certain factions in Syria has created ongoing tensions, and that a Turkey-Syria rapprochement would complicate the U.S.' position further, especially regarding their support of the YPG.
6. Regional Economic Recovery: Bağcı also drew attention to the economic dimension of the conflict, pointing out that Syria, with the support of Arab countries, could gradually recover from its economic woes, which have been exacerbated by conflict. He mentioned the importance of control over Syria’s oil fields, currently held by the YPG, and how a renewed partnership between Turkey and Syria could lead to the recovery of those resources and improved economic stability for both nations.
7. Domestic Impact in Turkey: The professor noted the domestic implications of the Syrian conflict for Turkey, including growing public frustration and the impact on Turkey's internal politics. As tensions over the presence of Syrian refugees and the ongoing conflict escalate within Turkey, Bağcı emphasized that a political solution with Syria would help ease domestic unrest, potentially allowing for a gradual return of refugees and reducing internal societal pressures.
Conclusion: A Critical Opportunity for Diplomacy
Prof. Bağcı concluded that a meeting between Erdoğan and Assad presents a critical diplomatic opportunity for both nations. He emphasized that while challenges remain, including managing international perceptions and overcoming entrenched positions, the time is ripe for dialogue and cooperation. A successful resolution would not only address security concerns but also open doors for broader regional stability and economic recovery, benefiting both Turkey and Syria.
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