Watch the segments from 3:11:25 to 3:28:00 and 3:49:00 to 3:59:00 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı's Analysis on Turkey-Syria Relations, NATO, and Global Security
On July 9, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, was featured as a guest speaker on the show Nokta Atışı with İpek Özbey on Habertürk. The discussion centered on the intricate relationship between Turkey and Syria, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the evolving role of NATO in global security. Prof. Bağcı shared his expert views on how these issues intersect with Turkey’s national security and foreign policy priorities.
Key Takeaways from Prof. Bağcı's Insights on “Turkey-Syria Relaitons”:
Turkey’s Presence in Syria: Prof. Bağcı noted the dual perspectives on Turkey’s role in Syria. While Syria views Turkey as an occupier, Turkey considers itself a protector of Syria’s territorial integrity under the Astana agreement, along with Russia and Iran. Resolving these deep-rooted issues will require comprehensive political, military, and diplomatic initiatives.
The Need for High-Level Talks: Prof. Bağcı stressed the importance of dialogue between Turkey and Syria, noting that high-level talks between the two countries are crucial to resolving the conflict. Without such discussions, Turkey’s internal social and economic fabric could face irreversible damage.
The Refugee Crisis and Its Impact: The presence of over 3.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey has created a significant strain on Turkey’s social and economic structures. Bağcı emphasized that while Turkey has upheld its moral responsibility, the ongoing burden is becoming increasingly unsustainable, with mounting political and social repercussions.
International Law and Migration: Prof. Bağcı highlighted the need for third-party mediation, particularly by the United Nations, in facilitating the safe return of Syrian refugees. He argued that the central Syrian government, led by Bashar al-Assad, must ensure the health, education, and safety of returnees, with the UN providing legal oversight.
Turkey’s Role in NATO and Regional Security: With NATO’s upcoming meeting, Prof. Bağcı stressed that Turkey must recalibrate its regional strategy, particularly regarding its military involvement in Syria and the fight against non-state armed groups like Daesh and the PKK, which pose threats to both Turkey’s internal security and regional stability.
Turkey’s Middle East Policy Missteps: Reflecting on Turkey’s foreign policy since 2012, Bağcı criticized the government’s overestimation of its influence in the Middle East. The decision to distance itself from the Assad regime was, in his view, a key mistake that led to Turkey’s deep entanglement in the Syrian crisis and its broader regional challenges.
The Growing Societal Impact of Migration: Prof. Bağcı warned of the societal erosion caused by Turkey’s uncontrolled migration flow, which he sees as a national issue rather than a bilateral one. The pressure on local services and the rapid demographic changes in cities like Kilis have caused deep social anxiety, which must be addressed urgently.
Key Takeaways from Prof. Bağcı's Insights on “NATO and Global Security”:
NATO’s Unique Role and Value System: NATO, as a military alliance that has lasted 75 years, is unprecedented in history. It was born out of the ideological conflict after WWII, with members joining voluntarily after meeting specific criteria. NATO's foundation is built on a value system that extends beyond military matters, which is why it has remained relevant even after the dissolution of its counterpart, the Warsaw Pact.
Ukraine’s Security Dilemma: Following the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan voluntarily gave up their nuclear weapons. This decision, according to Bağcı, has left Ukraine vulnerable to Russian aggression today. The conflict highlights the strategic disadvantage of relinquishing nuclear deterrents.
The Limits of Military Aid to Ukraine: The weapons supplied to Ukraine by NATO members are defensive rather than offensive, which limits Ukraine’s capacity to overpower Russia. Despite strong rhetoric from NATO leaders like Secretary General Stoltenberg, NATO members, including Turkey, are reluctant to send troops to engage Russia directly, reflecting a cautious stance.
Growing European Defense Spending and U.S. Profit: There is an ongoing arms buildup in Europe, partly fueled by the Russian-Ukrainian war. U.S. defense companies have seen a significant increase in weapon sales, with NATO members spending more on defense. However, no NATO country appears willing to engage Russia in direct combat.
Turkey’s Strengthened Position in NATO: Turkey is a key NATO member, second in terms of manpower and fifth in technological capabilities. With its expertise in counter-terrorism, Turkey has become more central to NATO's strategy, especially as the alliance shifts from seeing Turkey as a peripheral "wing country" to a more pivotal player following the inclusion of Sweden and Finland.
Impact of U.S. Politics on NATO’s Future: The upcoming U.S. elections could influence NATO's trajectory and the future of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Bağcı speculated that Donald Trump might return to power, which could shift U.S. foreign policy and NATO’s approach to the conflict.
NATO’s Global Reach and Response to China: NATO is evolving into a global alliance, with efforts to integrate non-European countries like Japan and South Korea. Bağcı highlighted the growing challenge of China’s rise, alongside the alignment of Russia, China, and North Korea, which together possess more nuclear weapons than the West.
Conclusion: Turkey’s Importance Grows Amid NATO’s Strategic Recalibration
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s insights provided a comprehensive overview of Turkey’s multifaceted challenges in Syria, the refugee crisis, and its upcoming role in NATO. His analysis calls for immediate diplomatic engagement and international cooperation to mitigate the socio-political and security challenges facing Turkey today.
Prof. Bağcı’s analysis also highlights NATO's adaptability and enduring relevance in the face of modern geopolitical challenges. As the world navigates the Russia-Ukraine war, the rising influence of China, and shifting U.S. politics, NATO's future role in maintaining global security will be shaped by its ability to respond to emerging threats while upholding the values that have sustained it for decades. Turkey’s growing significance within NATO, coupled with the alliance’s expanding global reach, underscores the dynamic nature of international alliances in an increasingly multipolar world.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.