Watch the segments from 28:10 to 1:04:15 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes Syria's Political Transition Period Dynamics and Its Potential Future within the Regional Context
On December 9, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his insights on the latest developments in Syria during Çiğdem Akdemir ile Takipçi program on KRT TV hosted by Çiğdem Akdemir. The program, focusing on Syria's shifting political landscape and the potential implications of a new government, provided valuable commentary on the region's evolving dynamics. Bağcı’s analysis highlighted the strategic importance of Turkiye, the uncertainty surrounding Syria’s future governance, and the complex interactions between regional and global powers.
Key Points from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı's Insights:
Syria’s Political Transformation and Turkiye's Central Role: Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized that Syria is undergoing a significant political transformation, with Bashar al-Assad's regime collapsing after years of instability. The emergence of new leaders like Jolani has reshaped the political landscape, positioning Syria on the verge of a crucial shift in governance. In this context, Turkiye’s involvement is critical. With its strategic military presence and support for the Syrian National Army, Turkiye is positioned as a key player in ensuring stability, influencing the new government structure, and promoting regional security. Prof. Dr. Bağcı noted that Turkiye must secure strong security guarantees to ensure its continued involvement in Syria’s reconstruction and stabilization.
Challenges in Establishing a Democratic Syria: Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted the importance of Syria transitioning to a democratic government, emphasizing the need for inclusive policies that prioritize human rights, gender equality, and religious freedoms. He expressed concerns over the possibility of a radical, Islamist government emerging, which could destabilize the region further. However, he remains cautiously optimistic about the potential for a federal or confederal structure, with Syria’s new leadership needing to balance various political ideologies. Bağcı also noted that the West, including the United States and the European Union, is closely monitoring these developments, as they will significantly influence international relations and Syria's path to recovery.
Geostrategic Dynamics and Syria’s Reconstruction: Prof. Dr. Bağcı analyzed the broader geopolitical context, noting Syria’s importance due to its strategic location and resources. Turkiye's growing influence in the region, particularly in Syria’s reconstruction, will play a pivotal role in regional economic recovery. Bağcı also pointed to the involvement of other international actors like the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom, all of which have vested interests in Syria's future. He highlighted the competition for influence over key sectors such as oil fields and infrastructure, stressing that Turkiye's historical ties to Syria, particularly through its Syrian refugee population, offer it a unique advantage in this reconstruction process.
Turkiye’s Strategic Role in Preventing Kurdish State Formation: Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized that Turkiye is playing a crucial role in preventing the establishment of a Kurdish state within Syria’s borders. He pointed out the difficulty of such a state existing next to Turkiye, noting the geopolitical implications of a Kurdish entity in Syria. He explained that while the situation remains fluid, Turkiye’s approach is focused on blocking any formation of a Kurdish state and strengthening regional security. As the negotiations progress, Turkiye is positioning itself as a key player in ensuring that Syria does not become a destabilizing force in the region.
Potential for a Lebanon-Type Government Structure: According to Prof. Dr. Bağcı, Syria could follow a political trajectory similar to Lebanon, where multiple ethnic and religious groups share power within a coalition government. However, he cautioned that the challenges are significant, especially with the presence of different armed factions like the YPG and the Syrian government forces. Bağcı highlighted that this kind of complex structure could lead to internal conflict if not managed effectively. The struggle for political control between groups like the YPG and the forces led by figures such as Jolani remains unresolved, complicating Syria’s path to a sustainable political solution.
The Importance of Rebuilding Syria’s Economy and Infrastructure: Prof. Dr. Bağcı underscored the pressing need for Syria to undergo an economic renaissance. He discussed the country’s economic decline, driven by years of mismanagement, and the importance of external and internal investments to revitalize the nation’s infrastructure. He stressed that Turkiye could play a significant role in shaping Syria’s future, particularly through infrastructure development such as highways and rail systems, which will facilitate trade and improve regional connectivity.
Conclusion: Turkiye's Pivotal Role in Syria's Political Transition and Reconstruction
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s insights offer a comprehensive understanding of Syria’s ongoing political transformation and the crucial role Turkiye is playing in shaping the country’s future. As Syria grapples with the aftermath of Assad's regime and the emergence of new political forces, Turkiye's strategic involvement is pivotal for regional stability, security, and reconstruction. While the road to a democratic and inclusive Syria remains challenging, the potential for a balanced, federal or confederal structure holds promise. Turkiye’s efforts to prevent the formation of a Kurdish state within Syria and its growing influence in the reconstruction process are central to maintaining both regional and international stability.
The rebuilding of Syria’s infrastructure and economy is essential not only for the country’s long-term stability but also for regional economic prosperity. As Syria moves toward a new phase of governance and recovery, Turkiye’s role, both as a military and economic actor, will be instrumental in guiding the country through these complex transitions.
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