Watch the segments from 30:30 to 41:55 and from 1:08:15 to 1:14:00 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Highlights Turkiye’s Strategic Role in Shaping the Future of Syria
On December 9, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his expert insights on the future of Syria in the TV 100’s Ebru Baki ile Para Manşet program hosted by Ebru Baki. The program focused on the topic of Syria's new administration and its unfolding developments. Prof. Dr. Bağcı provided an in-depth analysis of Syria's shifting political landscape and its implications for regional stability. He also highlighted Turkiye's critical role in shaping the country’s future, reflecting on Bashar al-Assad's strategic missteps, the geopolitics surrounding Syria's transition, and the evolving international dynamics in the Middle East.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
The Fall of Assad and the Strategic Implications: Prof. Dr. Bağcı discussed how the departure of Bashar al-Assad was not a surprise, particularly due to the failure of foreign powers like Russia and Iran to support the Syrian regime adequately. He highlighted how Assad's strategic mistakes, including his refusal to engage diplomatically with other powers, led to his downfall. This, he argued, is the fate of all dictatorships—events such as these are historical patterns that reflect the unsustainable nature of non-democratic governance.
Turkiye’s Role in Shaping Post-Assad Syria: Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized Turkiye’s significant position as a key player in the region, especially in terms of security and economic recovery. He noted that Turkiye’s active involvement in Syria through its military operations and the Syrian National Army has positioned it to be one of the most important countries in the formation of Syria’s new government. Turkiye’s military and political influence will play a major role in ensuring the success of a democratic and stable Syria.
Syria’s Return to Democracy and Human Rights: One of the core points of Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s remarks was the necessity of a democratic transition in Syria. He stressed that any new Syrian government must prioritize human rights, including gender equality and religious freedoms. Drawing comparisons with other regimes in the region, he underscored that democratic governance is not only essential for Syria’s stability but also for fostering better relations with neighboring countries, particularly Turkiye.
The Geostrategic Importance of Syria: Prof. Dr. Bağcı discussed Syria’s strategic location, particularly its proximity to vital trade routes. He pointed out the importance of Syria in Turkiye’s broader economic and military strategy, as well as its connection to projects in Iraq, such as Turkiye’s leadership in regional development efforts. Syria’s inclusion in these projects would benefit both countries and provide a new economic corridor for trade and investment in the region.
The Complex Dynamics Between Regional Powers: Prof. Dr. Bağcı analyzed the role of major global and regional powers like the United States, Russia, Israel, and Iran in Syria's future. He emphasized that while the U.S. and Israel may continue to cooperate on their objectives in Syria, Turkiye must carefully navigate its relationships with these powers to ensure its interests are met. He further noted that Syria’s future will depend on how well these countries cooperate or clash in shaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Syria's Reconstruction and the Role of International Support: Prof. Dr. Bağcı addressed the potential for Syria’s reconstruction, particularly after the fall of Assad. He noted that while the U.S. and Israel may continue to play significant roles, Turkiye’s influence, particularly in the reconstruction sector, would be crucial. Prof. Dr. Bağcı anticipated that Turkish businesses, especially in the construction sector, would benefit from Syria’s rebuilding process, noting that the country’s economic revival could stimulate growth across multiple sectors in 2025 and beyond.
Conclusion: Turkiye’s Key Role in Shaping Syria’s Post-Assad Transition
In conclusion, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s insights into Syria’s future underscore the profound geopolitical shifts and the pivotal role Turkiye will play in shaping the country’s transition. As Assad’s regime collapses, the need for a democratic, inclusive government becomes increasingly important for regional stability and international cooperation. Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted the significant economic and security opportunities for Turkiye, especially in terms of the return of Syrian refugees and Turkiye’s strategic position in the Middle East. His analysis also emphasized the complex relationships between major international powers, suggesting that careful diplomatic maneuvering will be essential to securing Syria's reconstruction and long-term peace. As the Middle East faces a new era, Turkiye’s leadership and involvement will be critical in ensuring a stable, prosperous, and democratic future for Syria and the broader region.
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