Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes Iran's Role in the Escalating Middle East Conflict Following the Missile Strike on Israel
On October 2, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, joined Mesut Yar on Habertürk TV’s Gün Başlıyor to discuss the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. As tensions rise following a missile attack on Israel, Bağcı shared his insights on the broader geopolitical implications, focusing on Iran’s involvement and the potential consequences for regional and global powers. His analysis highlighted the complexity of the situation, drawing attention to the interplay between military actions, international law, and political strategy.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Missile Strikes Do Not Constitute War: Bağcı emphasized that the missile exchange between Iran and Israel, while concerning, does not meet the definition of war under international law. He clarified that war involves territorial invasion and occupation, which Iran is not attempting. He described the current situation as a "mutual attack" rather than a full-scale conflict, drawing a distinction between targeted missile strikes and conventional warfare involving ground forces.
Iran’s Reluctance to Engage in Full-Scale War: Despite its aggressive posturing, Bağcı pointed out that Iran is unlikely to directly engage in a war with Israel. He argued that Iran’s leadership, including President Raisi, has consistently avoided war rhetoric, instead signaling a preference for caution. This restraint is due to Iran’s awareness of the severe consequences it would face, not just from Israel, but from the United States and other Western powers as well.
The Role of External Powers: According to Bağcı, the involvement of external powers such as the United States, Russia, and China plays a critical role in shaping the conflict. He noted that the U.S. has already expressed strong support for Israel, further complicating Iran’s position. Bağcı suggested that Israel's strategic goal may be to entrap Iran into a conflict that would extend beyond regional borders, potentially involving global powers.
The Shift from Arab-Israeli to Iran-Israeli Tensions: Bağcı highlighted a significant shift in the dynamics of the Middle East, where the historical Arab-Israeli conflict is being overshadowed by rising tensions between Israel and Iran. He observed that Arab nations have largely remained silent during the escalation, underscoring the geopolitical realignment in the region. This shift, he suggested, could redefine the nature of Middle Eastern conflicts for years to come.
Impact of Iran’s Military and Nuclear Ambitions: While Iran’s missile capabilities were demonstrated during the recent attack, Bağcı stressed that its nuclear ambitions remain a major point of contention with the West. He underscored the importance of ongoing negotiations between Iran and Western powers regarding its nuclear program, noting that these talks will heavily influence Iran's future military strategies and its relationship with global powers.
The Fragility of the Iranian Regime: Bağcı warned that internal unrest in Iran poses a significant risk to the stability of the regime. He cited mounting pressure from opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi and the broader dissatisfaction within Iranian society. Bağcı suggested that the regime's involvement in regional conflicts only exacerbates its internal vulnerabilities, potentially leading to long-term instability.
Turkey’s Strategic Non-Involvement: Finally, Bağcı reflected on Turkey’s role in the conflict, reaffirming its long-standing policy of non-involvement in Arab-Israeli affairs. He argued that despite inflammatory statements, Turkey is unlikely to become a party to the conflict. Bağcı reminded viewers that Turkey’s focus on maintaining regional stability and its NATO obligations will continue to guide its foreign policy.
Conclusion: Iran's Leadership is Walking a Fine Line: Iran’s Focus is not on a Direct Confrontation with Israel, but rather on Managing its Broader Conflict with the United States
In conclusion, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı emphasized the complex and cautious approach Iran is taking in the escalating conflict with Israel. Despite its missile capabilities, Iran remains aware of the far-reaching geopolitical consequences of direct involvement in a full-scale war. Bağcı stressed that while missile attacks create fear and destabilization, they do not constitute a traditional war. According to him, Iran’s focus is not on a direct confrontation with Israel, but rather on managing its broader conflict with the United States and navigating its precarious position in the region. As the global power dynamics shift, Iran's leadership is walking a fine line, knowing that any further escalation could lead to significant changes in the region’s geopolitical landscape.
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