Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes the Initial Results of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election and Its Global Implications
On November 6, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his insights on the preliminary results of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, highlighting its potential impacts on U.S. foreign policy and Turkey-U.S. relations, on Habertürk TV’s Gün Başlıyor program presented by Mesut Yar. With the early counts favoring Donald Trump, Prof. Dr. Bağcı analyzed the broader implications of a potential second Trump term, discussing how it might shape global geopolitical dynamics.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Trump's Return as a Continuation of Conservatism in Global Politics: Prof. Dr. Bağcı observed that Trump’s strong voter base reflects a resurgent conservatism, echoing sentiments across the U.S. and Europe. He attributed Trump’s appeal to his stance on immigration and traditional values, a trend that may further influence conservative policies worldwide. This wave of conservatism could prompt shifts in social and political policies, affecting nations beyond the U.S. and Europe, especially those in the Global South.
The U.S. as a Stabilizing Yet Evolving Force on the Global Stage: Although the U.S. remains the preeminent global superpower, Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized that emerging powers like China, Russia, and India are reshaping international relations. He pointed out that Trump’s policies may intensify U.S. efforts to counterbalance the influence of these nations, particularly in regions where multipolarity is on the rise, such as Latin America, Asia, and Africa. This trend is likely to redefine alliances and economic partnerships.
Potential Shifts in U.S. and European Relations Under Trump: Trump’s strained history with European leaders and skepticism toward NATO was another focal point in Bağcı’s remarks. He noted that Trump views Europe as an economic competitor and has previously questioned NATO’s funding and effectiveness. Should Trump win, Prof. Dr. Bağcı expects transatlantic relations to face renewed challenges, with potential shifts in U.S. commitments to European security and NATO.
Implications for Turkey-U.S. Relations in a Trump Presidency: Prof. Dr. Bağcı stated that Trump’s pragmatic approach to international relationships, including with Turkey, aligns with Turkey’s strategic objectives. He noted that historical ties between Republican administrations and Turkey have often been robust, and he anticipates this continuity if Trump wins. Prof. Dr. Bağcı particularly highlighted the potential for strengthened defense cooperation, notably on the F-16 acquisition and other critical military agreements.
Turkey’s Position Amid Shifting Global Alliances: Discussing Turkey’s role in the evolving global landscape, Prof. Dr. Bağcı described Turkey as being at the “center of a volatile region,” affected by conflicts from Europe to the Middle East. He underlined the importance of Turkey maintaining balanced relations with global powers to navigate regional challenges. Bağcı asserted that Turkey’s strategic importance could grow, especially in areas where U.S. influence may wane or face competition.
Trump’s Approach to Global Conflicts and Its Repercussions: Prof. Dr. Bağcı suggested that a renewed Trump administration might adopt a more transactional approach to foreign conflicts, with a focus on rapid resolution strategies. Trump’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, for example, indicates a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy, aiming for de-escalation. This could have significant effects on European security, given the EU’s dependency on U.S. leadership in the conflict.
U.S. Domestic Dynamics and Their Impact on Foreign Policy: Prof. Dr. Bağcı noted that domestic issues—such as economic challenges, healthcare, and immigration—will likely shape U.S. foreign policy under Trump. These internal pressures may result in more restrained global engagement, which could impact U.S. commitments in NATO, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific regions. A focus on domestic concerns could create a vacuum, allowing other powers to assert influence in traditionally U.S.-led regions.
Prof. Bağcı: This Election Represents More than just a Domestic Shift; It May Redefine the Strategic Imperatives for Nations Globally
The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election marks a critical juncture for global politics, with far-reaching implications for Turkey, NATO, and global power dynamics. Bağcı’s insights reveal that The potential re-election of Donald Trump could herald a return to the “America First” approach, reshaping alliances, trade dynamics, and foreign policies with a focus on American interests and economic resilience. Such a shift might prompt countries, including Turkey, to recalibrate their diplomatic and strategic stances to navigate this renewed emphasis on transactional relationships over multilateral cooperation. Conversely, a win for the Democratic candidate would likely maintain the Biden administration's current trajectory, with a focus on reinforcing multilateral institutions like NATO and strengthening alliances across Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
For Turkey, this election holds specific importance as it could affect its complex and multifaceted relationship with the U.S. on issues ranging from regional security to trade and defense. A Trump victory could lead to a more assertive U.S. stance on Turkish defense policies and its regional role, whereas a Democratic win might continue fostering collaboration on NATO commitments while addressing human rights and democratic values within a broader dialogue. Additionally, the election’s outcome may influence Middle Eastern stability, as U.S. policy shifts on Iran, Israel, and broader Middle Eastern engagements will have direct consequences for regional security—a priority for Turkey given its geopolitical position. In conclusion, as Bağcı suggests, the outcome of this election represents more than just a domestic shift; it may redefine the strategic imperatives for nations globally.
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For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.