Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes Trump's Impact on Global and U.S.-Turkiye Relations
On November 6, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, provided expert commentary on Ekol TV's Zeliha Saraç ile Gündem program, where he shared insights into Donald Trump’s recent reelection and its potential effects on international diplomacy, U.S.-Turkiye relations, and global stability. Prof. Bağcı’s remarks emphasized both the strategic opportunities and challenges posed by this new era in U.S. foreign policy and Turkiye’s evolving role within it.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Recalibrated U.S.-Turkiye Relations under Trump’s Return: Prof. Bağcı anticipates a constructive shift in U.S.-Turkiye relations under Trump’s second presidency, moving past the high tensions of their initial interactions. This time, Trump and Erdoğan may find common ground in economic pragmatism and bilateral diplomacy, aiming to foster a balanced, cooperative relationship rather than adversarial standoffs.
Turkiye's Strategic Advantage Amid European Unrest: Bağcı noted that as Europe faces economic and societal strain from its involvement in Ukraine, Turkiye's geopolitical importance is likely to rise. This shift could pave the way for a stronger role for Turkiye within NATO and improve Turkish-EU relations, as Europe increasingly sees Turkiye as a vital partner in regional stability and defense.
Middle Eastern Stability through Trump’s Non-Interventionist Stance: Trump’s preference for diplomatic solutions over military involvement, as Prof. Bağcı emphasized, may help stabilize the Middle East. Bağcı expects this approach to extend to the ongoing Israel-Palestine tensions, suggesting that a business-minded, transactional approach from the U.S. could lead to de-escalation and potentially resolve conflicts like those involving Hamas and Hezbollah.
China-U.S. Rivalry’s Global Impact on Economic Stability: Addressing the U.S.-China rivalry, Prof. Bağcı highlighted that while China and the U.S. are unlikely to engage in direct military confrontation, their economic competition could have broad effects, including on Turkiye. Turkiye’s positioning within organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization may help it navigate the emerging multipolar world order, adapting to new trade and economic shifts.
Revitalized Defense Discussions: F-35 and F-16 Programs: Prof. Bağcı remarked on the potential for renewed U.S.-Turkiye defense negotiations, specifically regarding the F-35 and F-16 agreements, under Trump’s leadership. This development could enhance Turkiye’s access to U.S. defense technology, boosting bilateral military collaboration and offering a framework for strategic alignment in defense policy.
Broader Global Leadership by a Pragmatic Trump Administration: Trump’s approach to global leadership is likely to focus on economic strength and diplomatic influence rather than conflict, according to Prof. Bağcı. This strategy might encourage other nations, including Turkiye, to adopt similarly pragmatic policies, prioritizing economic development over ideological divides in order to strengthen their positions in a multipolar global landscape.
Positive Outlook for Turkish-U.S. Economic Relations: Bağcı expressed optimism regarding the potential economic benefits of Trump’s presidency for Turkiye, especially in light of Trump’s alignment with policies supportive of Turkiye’s economic growth. As the U.S. prioritizes stable markets, Turkiye could benefit from strengthened trade and investment ties, creating a favorable environment for mutual economic advancement.
A New Era for Turkiye-U.S. Relations and Global Diplomacy
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s insights shed light on the diplomatic potential that Trump’s return to office may bring, particularly for U.S.-Turkiye relations. Bağcı envisions a shift from the prior high-tension phase to a more pragmatic, economically driven partnership. With shared interests at the forefront, Turkiye could gain strategic leverage not only in its relationship with the U.S. but also in its interactions within NATO and the EU, as European reliance on Turkiye’s stability continues to grow amid economic and political strain.
Bağcı also sees Turkiye’s potential to emerge as a central player in a multipolar world where economic competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, shapes new alliances and challenges. As Turkiye navigates its unique geopolitical position, Bağcı suggests that an era of cooperative diplomacy—anchored in economic resilience and strategic partnerships—could enhance Turkiye’s global influence. This balanced approach, focusing on mutual economic growth and regional stability, promises to elevate Turkiye’s role in addressing complex global issues in the years ahead.
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