Watch the segments from 00:00 to 11:00 | from 17:30 to 21:30 and from 35:00 to 37:15 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes the Strategic Objectives of the Assad Regime and Opposition Forces and the Future of Syrian Governance
On December 5, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, joined the Habertürk TV program hosted by Evren Aydın to discuss the rapidly changing dynamics in Syria. The discussion revolved around the strategic significance of Hama, the potential collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and the future political landscape of the country. Prof. Dr. Bağcı shared his insights on the internal and external factors influencing the ongoing conflict, providing a nuanced perspective on the shifting power structures in the region.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s Remarks:
The Strain on Bashar al-Assad's Leadership: Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized the psychological toll that the loss of key regions like Hama and Aleppo has on Bashar al-Assad. He noted that the retreating strategy of the Syrian army, particularly its inability to respond to opposition advances, has made Assad's position increasingly precarious. The loss of these vital areas marks the shrinking of Assad's territorial control, and the international community is watching closely to see how his regime will adapt or collapse in the coming days.
The Diminishing Support from Iran and Russia: Bağcı highlighted the diminishing support from key external players, particularly Iran and Russia. While both countries have been crucial allies to the Assad regime, their lack of immediate military or political support in the ongoing conflict suggests a shift in priorities. Bağcı argued that Syria is being left to fend for itself, with both Iran and Russia facing significant internal and external challenges, such as the war in Ukraine and the tensions in the Middle East. This reduction in support could hasten the regime's downfall.
The Fragmented Opposition and the Future of Syrian Leadership: According to Prof. Dr. Bağcı, the opposition to Assad is not a monolithic entity but rather a collection of diverse groups, each with its own agenda. While this fragmentation complicates the situation, it also means that the fall of Assad could lead to a power vacuum in Syria. Bağcı raised the critical question: who will rule Syria after Assad? He suggested that the future of the country depends on which groups emerge victorious and how they approach the creation of a new political system—be it democratic or otherwise.
The Possibility of Assad's Flight or Forced Removal: Bağcı suggested that Assad’s eventual departure is becoming more likely as the opposition gains ground. Drawing parallels with the fate of Saddam Hussein, he speculated that Assad could either flee the country or face a situation similar to Saddam’s, where he would be caught and removed from power. He emphasized that the question of Assad’s exit—whether through flight to Russia, Iran, or a different scenario—remains central to the ongoing conflict.
Syria’s Strategic Importance in Regional Politics: Bağcı explored the geopolitical significance of Syria in the broader Middle Eastern context. The fall of Assad would have far-reaching consequences not just for Syria, but for the region. He discussed how the shifting balance of power could affect neighboring countries, particularly Turkiye, which has been actively involved in supporting the opposition. The emergence of a new political order in Syria could reshape regional alliances and have significant implications for the security and stability of the surrounding areas.
Russia’s Tactical Role in the Conflict: Prof. Dr. Bağcı examined Russia’s tactical approach to the Syrian conflict, noting that despite its military presence in Syria, Moscow has yet to make a decisive move in favor of Assad. He suggested that Russia’s interests in Syria are now more focused on maintaining influence in the Mediterranean and protecting its military installations, particularly in the Tartus region. The country’s ability to sustain air superiority in Syria is important, but Bağcı warned that its commitment to Assad is uncertain given its ongoing challenges with the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical pressures.
The Role of International Diplomacy: Prof. Bağcı concluded by pointing out that while military action continues on the ground, international diplomacy is crucial in determining the outcome of the Syrian conflict. Bağcı noted ongoing negotiations between key international players, including the United States, Russia, and Turkiye, which will ultimately shape the direction of Syria’s future. He stressed that the decisions made by Iran and Russia regarding their support for Assad will be decisive in the coming days, with the potential to either prolong the regime’s survival or accelerate its collapse.
Conclusion: A Turning Point for Syria – The Fate of Assad's Regime and the Future Political Landscape
In conclusion, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı's analysis paints a picture of a critical juncture for Syria, where both internal and external dynamics are converging to shape the country's future. With Bashar al-Assad's regime under increasing pressure, and the diminishing support from key allies like Iran and Russia, the opposition's rapid gains signal a potential collapse of the Assad regime. The possibility of Assad’s departure, either through flight or forced removal, looms large, raising significant questions about Syria’s political future. The role of external powers, including Russia, Iran, and Turkiye, alongside the fragmented opposition, will ultimately determine the shape of the post-Assad era. As diplomatic negotiations intensify and military clashes continue, Syria’s political future remains in flux, with profound implications for the broader Middle East and international stability.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.