Watch the segments from 50:35 to 55:35 | from 1:41:55 to 1:47:50 | from 1:49:25 to 1:52:50 | from 2:27:30 to 2:29.10 and from 2:37:10 to 2:28:10 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Discusses Syria’s Transformative Period Amid Opposition Forces’ Entry to Damascus
On December 7, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, appeared as a speaker on Habertürk TV’s Gerçek Fikri Ne? program hosted by Eren Eğilmez to provide an in-depth analysis of the escalating crisis in Syria, with a particular focus on Damascus. Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s remarks offered crucial insights into the complexities of Syria's evolving political and military landscape.
1. The Transformation of Syria and the Middle East: Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized that Syria, much like the broader Middle East, is undergoing irreversible transformations. Drawing parallels between the current situation and past upheavals, he highlighted how recent developments—such as the October 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict—have significantly altered geopolitical realities. Syria’s internal collapse and Bashar al-Assad’s waning control are central to this transition, heralding a new and uncertain era for the region.
2. The Imminent Departure of Bashar al-Assad: According to Prof. Dr. Bağcı, Assad’s regime is on the verge of collapse. He suggested that Assad's future mirrors that of other fallen leaders in the region, predicting either exile or a violent end. The evacuation of senior military figures and the disintegration of state control underscore this inevitability. As Syria approaches this critical juncture, its political vacuum will likely be filled by competing armed factions, each vying for dominance.
3. Regional and International Power Dynamics: Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted the critical role of external actors, such as the United States, Israel, and the PYD, in shaping the Syrian conflict. He stressed that the cooperation between these entities will profoundly influence the region’s stability. Additionally, he noted that British companies have begun eyeing opportunities in Syria’s northern oil fields, signaling increased international interest in the country’s resources.
4. The Future of Turkish-Syrian Relations: Turkiye’s position in the Syrian crisis remains pivotal. Prof. Dr. Bağcı underscored the urgency for Turkiye to navigate its complex relationships with the PYD and other groups in the region. He argued that Turkiye cannot be sidelined in the evolving power structure, given its geographical and strategic significance. However, the continued support of PYD by the U.S. poses challenges to Turkiye’s regional goals.
5. The PYD’s Role and the Risk of Fragmentation: Prof. Dr. Bağcı raised concerns about the PYD’s ambitions and its implications for Syria’s territorial integrity. He questioned whether the region would see the establishment of a Taliban-like regime or a secular Islamic governance structure, emphasizing the long-term instability such fragmentation could cause. The PYD’s cooperation with external powers like the U.S. and Israel further complicates prospects for a unified Syria.
6. Humanitarian and Civil War Concerns: As the crisis deepens, Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted the risk of widespread humanitarian suffering, especially in Damascus. He pointed to historical examples of looting, destruction, and violence in war-torn regions, warning that similar outcomes could unfold in Syria. Addressing these humanitarian challenges will require comprehensive international cooperation and a clear strategy for post-Assad governance.
7. Iran’s Waning Influence: Prof. Dr. Bağcı noted that Iran, once a dominant player in Syria, is now retreating due to internal and external pressures, including the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. He argued that this decline parallels Russia’s withdrawal, creating a power vacuum that will shape the region’s future dynamics. The diminished role of Iran adds another layer of complexity to the post-Assad transition.
Conclusion: Navigating Syria’s Uncertain Future
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s analysis underscores the profound implications of Syria’s transformation on regional stability and international relations. As the Assad regime’s collapse appears inevitable, the interplay between armed factions, regional powers, and global actors will determine the country’s future. The involvement of nations such as Turkiye, the U.S., and Iran highlights the complexity of the evolving power dynamics, while humanitarian concerns demand immediate attention. Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s insights call for a coordinated international approach to navigate these challenges, ensuring that Syria transitions towards a sustainable and inclusive peace, rather than descending further into chaos.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.