Watch the segments from 1:42:15 to 1:54:55 | 2:07:30 to 2:15:25 and 2:36:50 to 2:41:40 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes Current Dynamics in Syria and Turkiye’s Regional Role
On December 1, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of ANKUDA, appeared on Habertürk TV’s Gündem, hosted by Faruk Aksoy. The discussion centered around the evolving situation in Syria, its implications for regional stability, and Turkiye’s strategic interests in the Middle East. Prof. Dr. Bağcı provided a detailed analysis of the geopolitical dynamics shaping the region. Below is the transcription of his remarks.
The Impact of the Astana Process Termination
"Because at this point, beyond shuffling the cards anew, the Astana process, which we know as the initiative involving Russia, Turkiye, and Iran working together to safeguard and uphold Syria's borders—essentially agreeing to Syria's territorial integrity—had been a major focus of our efforts. The termination of the Astana process has had very negative consequences. This is because there is no longer an opportunity for the parties to come together and talk. That is, Iran, Russia, and Turkiye cannot engage in dialogue."
Russia’s Regional Role and Strategy
"Now, two points must be considered. First, regarding Russia's actions, some Russian representatives are following a policy of threatening Turkiye. But this is typical of Russian politics: on one hand, they dangle a carrot, while on the other, they criticize. They are trying to confuse Turkiye, but in my opinion, their approach is not new. Of course, Russia, as a country seeking to maintain a permanent presence in the region, will not easily abandon its position here because it has military bases. Among the nations benefiting most from the continuation of Bashar al-Assad's regime, Russia is undoubtedly one.
Another point is Aleppo. Is the attack on Aleppo a precursor? Yes, it is. I would even go further and say this: I’ve mentioned elsewhere before that I wouldn’t be surprised to see North Korean soldiers in Syria. The dynamics of the region are increasingly interconnected globally."
The Role of External Powers in Syria
"Currently, we must examine who benefits from Syria's division and who doesn't. Two countries have notably used the same rhetoric: the United States and Israel. Both have said, 'We are observing.' Why are they watching? They do not yet know who to support in the ongoing conflicts. Therefore, the question remains about whether the Syrian National Army will enter into conflict with the PYD in the future or whether the PYD will strike a deal."
I think two external factors play a significant role here: the United States and Russia. The influence of countries like Turkiye and Iran in the region is, of course, significant.
Will there be an agreement between the Syrian National Army and YPG? If so, where will Turkiye stand in all of this? In the continuation of these events, we know that YPG is especially receiving support from the U.S. and Israel. How will Iran respond? Iraq seems to be trying to isolate itself from the situation, claiming, 'I’m not part of this.' However, if Iraq enters the scene, it will likely collapse further. It seems like steps are being laid for the possible establishment of a Kurdish state in the Middle East."
Turkiye’s Regional Position and Diplomatic Strategy
"Recently, Iran's foreign minister visited Turkiye and held talks with Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov. Turkiye currently adopts a wait-and-see policy, which is an appropriate approach. Diplomatically, Turkiye is attempting to resolve matters peacefully. Turkiye has often been portrayed as an occupier in Syrian media. Similarly, the PYD's terminology reflects Turkiye as an occupying force. However, it must not be forgotten that Turkiye's presence in Syria is aimed at safeguarding its border security. Under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, a country can take necessary measures against a perceived threat outside its borders in self-defense.
Turkiye’s primary concern at this stage is the possibility of a new wave of migration from Idlib. Whether or not this will occur remains to be seen. However, the determining factor, in my view, will be whether the central government—that is, Bashar al-Assad's regular army—can succeed against irregular groups. It is well known that this would be very difficult without Russian support.
If the Syrian state legally collapses, Turkiye’s presence in Syria will become a question of legitimacy. Will Turkiye be viewed as an occupier or a savior by the emerging groups? If perceived as a savior, Turkiye should be assigned a separate role. Such matters must be discussed extensively. Turkiye is actively involved, both on the ground and strategically."
The Future of Syria and Turkiye's Strategic Challenges
"What kind of regime will be established in Syria, how many fragments will it split into, and how will Turkiye collaborate with these new entities? These are crucial questions. We have over 900 kilometers of borders with Syria, but we can control only about 30-40 kilometers. This is a significant issue. Who will our new neighbors be?"
Conclusion: Turkiye’s Strategic Approach and Future Considerations
"Turkiye cannot be sidelined. At this stage, it is critical for Turkiye to re-establish high-level dialogue with Russia, as the situation directly involves the interests of both countries in the region. The situation under Bashar al-Assad appears to be rapidly descending into chaos. However, we must also consider who will come after Assad, whether they can establish a system, and if so, whose plans that system will align with."
"Turkiye’s priorities include addressing the refugee issue and managing the influence of various groups. There are hundreds of groups, and the question is which of them will act with Turkiye and whether they can be controlled. Additionally, Turkiye is not the sole main actor in this situation. External military support is provided to the PYD by the U.S. and to Bashar al-Assad by Russia. Turkiye, on the other hand, has supported groups through training and funding, although there have been tensions and criticism from these groups toward Turkiye recently."
"In the coming days, Iran's stance will also be critical. Iraq’s Prime Minister recently stated that their border with Syria was closed, but such closures can be nominal in times of war. The concern for Turkiye is whether it will continue to cooperate with Iran and Russia to maintain Syria’s territorial integrity. I believe Turkiye’s interests align with the continuation of the Syrian state. There may be differing views, but the collapse of Syria or a regime change would lead to uncertainty and chaos, which would not benefit Turkiye."
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