Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes the Downfall of the Assad Regime and Its Implications
On December 8, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, provided a detailed analysis on Habertürk TV’s Haber Bülteni program hosted by Ayşe Süberker, discussing the transformative shifts in Syria and their broader regional and global implications. During the program, he shared his perspectives on Syria's ongoing crisis, touching upon the collapse of the Assad regime, the role of external powers, and the uncertain future of the country. His insights shed light on the changing dynamics of the Middle East and the impact of recent developments in Syria.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s Remarks:
The End of the Assad Regime: Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized that Syria, along with its broader regional context, is undergoing irreversible change. He pointed out that Bashar al-Assad’s regime is nearing its collapse, either through exile or violent end. The fragmentation of Assad's authority and the departure of key military leaders signal the regime's impending demise. Bağcı suggested that this collapse will lead to a power vacuum, with various factions vying for control, signaling a new era for the country.
The Role of Iran and Russia in Syria's Future: Addressing the regional dynamics, Bağcı highlighted the diminished influence of Iran and Russia in Syria. While both countries have played significant roles in supporting the Assad regime, Bağcı noted that the region’s shifting political landscape may signal a change in their strategies. Iran’s decreasing influence, particularly in light of its challenges with the Sunni opposition, and Russia’s ongoing withdrawal, create an uncertain future for these countries in shaping Syria’s post-Assad scenario.
The Geopolitical Implications of Syrian Change: Prof. Dr. Bağcı placed the Syrian conflict within a historical context, pointing to the legacy of the Arab Spring and its lingering effects on the region. He argued that Syria’s transformation should be seen as the culmination of a broader regional shift that began in the 1960s and 1970s. According to Bağcı, the social and political movements that once promoted socialist ideals and minority-majority equality have now been replaced by new realities, leaving the country in a state of upheaval and reconfiguration.
The Prospect of a Democratic or Radical Syria: A significant portion of Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s analysis centered on Syria’s future political structure. He discussed the two potential pathways for Syria: a return to a democratic governance system or the rise of a radical, potentially Taliban-like regime. Bağcı stressed that Syria’s future should not be based on sectarianism or extremism but should prioritize democratic principles, allowing for a more inclusive governance model. However, he cautioned that if radical groups take control, Syria could face long-term instability.
The Impact of Arab States on Syria’s Transformation: Bağcı underscored the importance of Arab nations, particularly those with significant Kurdish populations like Qatar, the UAE, and Egypt, in shaping Syria’s future. He noted that Arab countries’ attitudes toward radical movements in Syria will be crucial in determining the success of any future political order. Bağcı highlighted that these states are unlikely to support radical elements, and their stance will be pivotal in ensuring that Syria’s transformation leads to stability, rather than further fragmentation.
Conclusion: Navigating Syria’s Future Amid Uncertainty
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s remarks present a critical view of Syria’s ongoing transformation, underscoring the imminent collapse of the Assad regime and the shifting balance of regional power. As external actors like Iran and Russia see their influence wane, the path Syria takes will depend heavily on the formation of a new political order. Whether the country transitions towards a democratic future or falls into radicalism remains uncertain. Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s insights stress the importance of international engagement and regional cooperation to ensure that Syria’s future promotes stability and inclusivity, rather than descending into chaos.
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