Watch the segments from 2:04:55 to 2:09:00 and from 2:18:25 to 2:23:15 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes the Shift in Syrian Leadership, Regional Power Dynamics, and Prospects for Post-Assad Governance
On December 8, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his in-depth analysis on TV100’s Başak Şengül İle Doğru Yorum program hosted by Başak Şengül. The discussion revolved around the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the potential political, social, and geopolitical reconfigurations awaiting Syria. Prof. Dr. Bağcı delivered critical insights into the challenges and opportunities of a post-Assad Syria, emphasizing the implications for regional and global dynamics.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Assad's Fall and Its Symbolic Significance: Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted that Bashar al-Assad’s departure to Moscow as a political refugee marks a historical turning point for Syria. He noted that Assad's decision to flee rather than face a fate similar to Saddam Hussein or Muammar al-Gaddafi signifies a strategic choice to preserve his life. Assad’s exit signals the collapse of his regime’s legitimacy and paves the way for the reorganization of Syrian governance.
Uncertainty in Syria’s Political Future: According to Bağcı, the key issue now is determining what type of political system will take shape in Syria. While he expressed hope for a transparent, democratic, and constitutional structure, he acknowledged the complexity of internal and external dynamics. Internal factions and their capacity to negotiate compromises will heavily influence the outcome, as will the involvement of external actors like Turkiye, Russia, and Iran.
Turkiye’s Strategic Role in Shaping Syria’s Future: Bağcı underlined Turkiye’s pivotal role in the evolving Syrian political landscape. With its economic, military, and humanitarian investments in the region, Turkiye is positioned as a key actor in stabilizing Syria. He noted that Turkiye’s diplomatic engagements, particularly with Israel and the U.S., and its ability to balance security concerns with regional interests, will play a decisive role in shaping the new Syrian administration.
The Influence of External Factors on Internal Stability: Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized that Syria’s internal factions, while diverse and divided, will be heavily influenced by external actors. He noted that international stakeholders must ensure a balanced approach that accommodates diverse interests within Syria to prevent a power vacuum or the rise of a radical government. Turkiye, Russia, and Iran, along with international allies, will need to collaborate to support a stable and inclusive transition.
The Role of Israel and Regional Security Dynamics: Bağcı explored Israel’s strategic interests in the region, particularly its historical relationship with Syria. He pointed out that the removal of Assad creates uncertainty for Israel, especially regarding security concerns along the Golan Heights. Any new Syrian administration will need to navigate its relationship with Israel carefully, balancing regional stability with domestic expectations.
The Declining Influence of Iran and Russia: Bağcı argued that Iran and Russia, despite their historical support for Assad, are emerging as weakened players in the region. Iran’s ideological alignment with Syria is likely to diminish, while Russia’s preoccupation with global conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, limits its capacity to maintain influence in Syria. This creates an opening for other regional actors, particularly Turkiye, to assert greater influence.
The Prospect of a More Inclusive Syrian Governance: Prof. Dr. Bağcı concluded that while a return to dictatorship in Syria appears unlikely, the road to a democratic and inclusive political system will be fraught with challenges. He stressed the importance of dialogue among internal factions and the role of international diplomacy in fostering a governance structure that reflects the aspirations of the Syrian people.
Conclusion: Navigating Syria's Post-Assad Future
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s analysis outlines a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, where the fall of Bashar al-Assad signals the collapse of an era and the onset of a new political phase. The central challenge now lies in shaping Syria’s future political system. The path forward will depend heavily on the ability of internal factions to find common ground and the extent to which external actors, such as Turkiye, Russia, Iran, and Israel, engage in collaborative efforts to ensure stability.
The next phase of Syrian governance is fraught with complexity, as regional and global dynamics will heavily influence the country’s trajectory. Bağcı highlights the diminishing influence of traditional power players like Iran and Russia, which creates opportunities for other regional powers to assert their influence. However, achieving a stable, inclusive political system will require ongoing dialogue, negotiation, and strategic diplomacy. In the coming months, Syria’s future will be shaped by the delicate balance between internal negotiations and the external forces that hold considerable sway over the country’s destiny.
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