Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Shares Insights on Escalation in Syria Following Lebanese Ceasefire
On November 28, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, the co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, appeared as a speaker on Russia Today TV to discuss the critical developments in Syria following the Lebanese ceasefire agreement. Program delved into the dynamics of the region, examining how radical forces, state actors, and geopolitical interests intersect in shaping Syria's future. Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s comprehensive analysis shed light on the multifaceted challenges and implications of these unfolding events.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı on Syria’s Escalating Crisis:
The Strategic Timing of the Escalation: Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted the significance of the Syrian escalation occurring immediately after the Lebanese ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. This development, he noted, raises questions about the coordination and intentions of radical forces aiming to capture Aleppo and destabilize the Bashar al-Assad regime. He emphasized that the coming hours and days would reveal how effectively Syrian forces could respond to these offensives.
The Necessity of Turkish-Syrian Dialogue: According to Prof. Dr. Bağcı, the presence of Turkish forces in Syria underscores the urgency for direct talks between Turkey and Syria. He stressed that avoiding the emergence of no-man’s-land zones is vital for regional stability. Such spaces could exacerbate security threats for both nations, making collaboration imperative despite their historical tensions.
Turkey’s Strategic Dilemma: Reflecting on Turkey's position, Prof. Dr. Bağcı remarked that the country finds itself in a precarious balancing act—supporting anti-Assad forces while also protecting its long-term interests. This dual strategy, he argued, places Turkey in a “damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t” situation, highlighting the challenges of aligning military and political objectives in a volatile region.
The Role of External Powers: Prof. Dr. Bağcı pointed to the involvement of external actors, such as the United States, in supporting factions like the YPG. He warned that such interventions contribute to the instability west of the Euphrates, calling for Syrian forces to regain control over these territories to mitigate broader regional risks.
Migration Implications for Turkey: The ongoing conflict, Prof. Dr. Bağcı noted, has profound implications for Turkey, particularly in managing migration flows. He underlined that empowering radical groups would worsen the humanitarian crisis and strain Turkey’s capacity to manage displaced populations. Stability in Syria is therefore crucial for alleviating these pressures.
Collaborative Pathways to Stability: Addressing Syria’s Escalating Crisis
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s analysis underscores the urgent need for collaborative efforts to address the escalating crisis in Syria. He highlights the importance of Turkish-Syrian dialogue as a critical step to prevent the emergence of destabilizing no-man’s-land zones and to safeguard regional stability. The challenges posed by radical forces, migration pressures, and external interventions demand coordinated action to restore order and protect Syria’s territorial integrity. As the region faces this pivotal moment, fostering communication and joint strategies among neighboring states will be essential for achieving long-term peace and security in the Middle East.
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