Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı: Turkey’s Regional Strategy in the Middle East Following the U.S. Presidential Elections
On November 27, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, Co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group (ANKUDA), participated in an in-depth discussion on Habertürk TV’s Açık ve Net program, presented by Semiha Şahin. The focus of the conversation was on Turkey's regional strategy in the Middle East in light of the U.S. Presidential Elections. Prof. Dr. Bağcı addressed various geopolitical challenges, Turkey's foreign policy decisions, and the evolving role of the U.S. in the region. The following is the full transcription of his remarks.
Turkey's Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Position
"Turkey is not just any country. From both a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective, it is a hinge country—a nation that either provides a gateway or closes it. Understanding how Turkey is perceived by other countries, especially the world’s major powers, is crucial."
"I’d like to build on this with the metaphor of lenses. If you’re not looking through the same lens as others, you will inevitably see different things. For example, regarding the PYD/PKK, it is crucial to understand its direct correlation with the U.S. military structure known as CENTCOM. We are currently initiating an academic study on this topic. In Turkey, everyone seems to be voicing their own opinions, but what is this CENTCOM structure? What is its position in U.S. strategy, and what new roles might it assume in the near future? These are the academic questions we are pursuing."
Turkey's Fight Against Terrorism
"Turkey’s fight against terrorism—especially cross-border terrorism—should also be emphasized. Terrorism comes in different forms; it can be domestic, or it can be cross-border. For instance, in the 1990s, Turkey signed agreements with Israel and India to cooperate against terrorism. Why? At that time, Israel had issues in Gaza, and India faced challenges with Pakistan over Kashmir. Meanwhile, Turkey was dealing with problems with Syria and Iraq. Don’t forget that Öcalan stayed in Syria for 15 years, not elsewhere."
"The current and forthcoming developments in Syria will directly impact Turkey, marking a very critical phase. In the context of your brief summary about the Trump administration, the question of whether the U.S. will withdraw or stay remains unanswered. When we examine the general sentiment in the United States, it is evident that American policies are not just a problem for Turkey and the Middle East but also for European nations."
U.S. Policies and Global Dynamics
"For example, consider the recent debate between Elon Musk and former Chancellor Angela Merkel. This interaction hints at potential challenges for the German government in the future. Donald Trump is fundamentally a businessman. This raises an important debate: will the U.S. shape its policies based on its geopolitical and geostrategic interests, or will it prioritize trade and wealth?"
"Will America abandon its traditional exceptionalism and grand strategy? This is a critical issue. Over the next four years, will U.S. policies lead to chaos, disorder, or isolationism? Only time will tell. Preemptive conclusions would be speculative. As Süleyman Demirel famously said, it’s like tailoring clothes for an unborn child."
Turkey’s Role and Strategic Considerations
"Countries like Turkey must tread carefully in this process. As a middle-power country, we should avoid overstretching our capacity or making interventions beyond our means. It is vital to adopt pragmatic, realpolitik approaches rather than purely ideological ones."
"Turkey has shown a degree of balance, especially in the Russia-Ukraine war and the grain deal negotiations. These efforts, such as hosting peace talks in Antalya, were significant achievements. However, Turkey’s security must align with the West through NATO. When NATO’s Secretary General visits Turkey, it’s not merely for coffee, even if coffee and Turkish delight are served. The discussions revolve around Turkey’s role in European security and NATO’s new responsibilities."
The Complexity of U.S. Middle East Policies
"As for U.S. policies, its approach to the Russia-Ukraine war cannot be expected to mirror its policies in the Middle East. We’ll delve into Gaza shortly, but Turkey’s primary challenge today stems from how its domestic debates are framed. Viewing everything through the lens of 'the Biden administration is against Turkey' is overly simplistic. The U.S. government’s policies are unpredictable, not just for Turkey but for everyone."
"Rather than adopting an adversarial stance, it’s essential to engage diplomatically. Historically, Turkey has managed complex relations with the U.S. without becoming a subordinate state. This principle dates back decades, such as Turkey’s response to the Johnson Letter in 1964."
Realism in Turkey’s Foreign Policy
"A key lesson from Turkey’s foreign policy over the past two decades is that ideological approaches in the Middle East invariably fail. Realism is essential in a region as volatile as the Middle East. Turkey must assess its interests accurately, identify weaknesses in existing frameworks, and act cautiously in this 'minefield.'"
"During the 2010s, under Davutoğlu’s policies, Turkey rushed into the Middle East, only to later learn hard lessons. The years spent in disputes with countries like the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, and others were wasted. If Turkey had pursued more strategic policies, its economy would be much stronger today."
"As Merkel stated in her memoirs, if a country’s politicians lack proper vision, they can ruin a nation—not just militarily but also economically, culturally, and socially. Turkey must reevaluate regional and global developments to prepare for Trump’s potential return to power. While it’s incorrect to say everything Turkey has done is wrong, recognizing both successes and mistakes is critical for moving forward."
The Future of Syria and Turkey’s Strategic Decisions
"Turkey’s fight against Daesh (ISIS) has been a complex matter. Globally, the narrative often credits the YPG/PKK and Kurdish women fighters with the most significant contributions against ISIS, as portrayed by Western and Russian media. This perception needs to be acknowledged."
"Turkey made missteps, such as relocating the Süleyman Şah Tomb. Until Turkey conducts an economic and strategic assessment of its foreign policy over the last two decades, it risks repeating its mistakes."
"When discussing Syria and the Middle East, Turkey must recognize its interests and act swiftly with Russia to address threats posed by terrorist organizations. If the Assad regime collapses, Turkey’s challenges will only increase, as it may be forced to intervene more extensively in Syria."
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