Watch the segments from 07:30 to 16:10 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes Recent Affairs in Aleppo and Its Implications on Syria and Regional Dynamics
On December 1, 2024, during Habertürk TV’s Haber Bülteni program presented by Kübranur Uslu, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, Co-founder of ANKUDA, shared his expert analysis on Syria’s recent affairs following the escalating conflict in Aleppo. His insights explored the evolving dynamics of the Syrian conflict, touching upon the involvement of major powers, regional players, and potential implications for neighboring countries. Below is the full transcription of his remarks, divided into thematic sections for clarity and ease of reading.
The Chaos in Syria and Emerging Dynamics
"Indeed, there is a great chaos at play, and who is collaborating with whom—or will collaborate—will become clearer in the coming days. However, the situation unfolding in Syria now brings along a new development.
Syria will no longer be as it was. In other words, either these groups will be defeated by the Syrian regime and its allies—namely Iran and Russia—or we might witness a regime change in Syria.
Let us note that the United States has said, 'We are closely monitoring the situation.' Since the U.S. is monitoring it closely, they have likely already calculated, to some extent, the potential outcomes. It's clear that the White House is heavily involved in supplying arms to the region, particularly with an emphasis on the PYD (Democratic Union Party).
Furthermore, the U.S. seems to have largely prepared the military infrastructure necessary for a potential Kurdish state led by the PYD. However, there are new factors that haven’t been accounted for, such as the commencement of airstrikes. It appears Russia is poised to provide substantial support to Syria. As for Iran’s next moves, those remain uncertain, and we’ll see how they unfold."
Turkey’s Strategic Concerns and Regional Stability
"For Turkey, the situation is critically important. Turkey's military presence in the region and its support for the Free Syrian Army will also need to be closely observed in the coming period. Additionally, it’s crucial to keep in contact with those who are on the ground, including groups and analysts, to understand the evolving dynamics.
We are now on the fourth day, and we may need to wait another 112 days. It’s still very difficult to say definitively who is winning or losing at this point. For instance, an airport might be captured but abandoned again after just four hours. Chaos reigns no matter how you look at it. The main question is how regional countries will emerge from this with minimal damage. The diplomatic and military relationships between the on-ground factions and external powers will also play a decisive role."
The Role of Major Powers: Russia, Iran, and the U.S.
"Will the United States continue its support for the PYD, or can Russia, with its air force, push back the opposition by supporting regime forces? I am among those who believe Russia holds the key role. From Russia’s perspective, regime change in Syria does not serve its interests.
From Israel’s perspective, it seems that the events in Gaza and Lebanon are being overshadowed by developments in Syria. In the coming days, Syria is likely to dominate the agenda more prominently. Iran, on the other hand, appears to have suffered a significant loss of power—up to 70%. It seems to be one of the biggest losers in this conflict."
Turkey’s Response to the Crisis
"Regarding Turkey, the attacks on Idlib raise significant concerns about the possibility of a large-scale migration wave targeting Turkey. Hence, I assume that Turkey’s Ministry of Defense is taking the necessary military precautions. Similarly, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs must also have measures in place—or should have—to address such a scenario. A new wave of migration into Turkey could exacerbate the country’s already significant economic and social issues."
The Calm Before the Storm: Key Observations
"But it is important to emphasize, that this escalation in Syria was expected. It was a calm before the storm; there were clear signs of it.
Additionally, Iraq plays a crucial role. Iraq has closed its border with Syria, which is significant because the Iran-Iraq-Syria corridor was previously used as a supply route. A critical question now is whether Bashar al-Assad will rely more on Iran or Russia. I believe Assad will lean more heavily on Russia and receive substantial support from them. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. It is highly likely that a joint operation may even be discussed."
Conclusion: A Decisive Week Ahead
"Would Turkey welcome Assad’s removal from power? I’m unsure about that. I have certain concerns in this regard because Russia’s presence in Syria is permanent, and Turkey must find a way to align with Russia in some capacity.
Tomorrow, Iran’s Foreign Minister will visit Turkey, reinforcing Turkey’s central role in these developments. This is because, as we always say, it is difficult to establish a regional equation without Turkey. Turkey is not a zero but a one, which adds value. No matter what number you place after it, a one remains significant, whereas a zero is negligible, no matter where you place it.
Therefore, it is crucial to observe the White House’s approach to Turkey. What are they proposing? Currently, the U.S. has an elected president, but Donald Trump hasn’t taken office yet. It is also likely that Israel is using Syria to shift attention away from Gaza and Lebanon. However, I don’t believe Israel supports a regime change in Syria. Weakening the Assad regime might be acceptable, but the question of who would replace Assad remains unclear.
Thus, recent discussions about a coup in Syria were brought up, but it seems we need a few more days to better understand what is happening on the ground. This week will be decisive. In the next few days, we will see whether there are significant shifts in the balance of power.
For example, the question remains whether the Syrian army and its allies can advance further. It was noted earlier that they might capture certain areas.
We must remember that, in 1982, Hafez al-Assad killed 20,000 people in Hama. This makes Hama a particularly interesting city. Similarly, Aleppo is highly significant, not just for Syria but also for Turkey and other external actors."
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