Watch the segments from 2:59:40 to 3:05:45 | from 3:06:15 to 3:07:45 and from 3:47:24 to 3:54:20 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes the Future of Syria: The Path to Stability and Turkiye’s Key Role in Reconstruction
On December 8, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his expert insights on the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the future political landscape of Syria during an appearance on Sözcü TV's Aslı Kurtuluş Mutlu ile Aklın Yolu program hosted by Aslı Kurtuluş Mutlu. Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s insights shed light on the historical context of Syria’s struggles, the critical role of Turkiye in shaping the region's future, and the complex diplomatic and strategic pathways ahead for Syria, Turkiye, and other global powers.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
End of the Assad Era and the Need for New Assessments: Prof. Dr. Bağcı began by emphasizing that the fall of Bashar al-Assad marks the end of an era in Syria, signaling the start of a new geopolitical phase. He noted that Syria is now "13 years behind" neighboring countries, including Turkiye, particularly regarding infrastructure, governance, and economic development. This shift calls for fresh evaluations and strategic considerations, especially for regional actors like Turkiye, which must reassess its approach to Syria beyond its immediate 9-10 km border. Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted the critical role of Syria in broader geopolitical and trade dynamics, particularly in relation to the Mediterranean, and the Middle East.
Turkiye's Strategic Position in the Region: In discussing the future of Syria, Prof. Dr. Bağcı emphasized Turkiye's central role in shaping the post-Assad landscape. He pointed out Turkiye’s significant investments in Syria’s reconstruction and its military presence, which position the country as a key player in regional stability. He also stressed Turkiye’s broader strategic relationships with global powers like the United States and Israel, which will influence the direction of Syrian governance. As the only regional power with extensive engagement in Syria, Turkiye's involvement will be crucial in ensuring that Syria emerges as a secure and democratic state, free from the dominance of non-state actors like the PKK and PYD.
The Potential for a Democratic Transition in Syria: A central theme of Prof. Dr. Bağcı’s remarks was the necessity for Syria to undergo a democratic transformation. He emphasized that any future Syrian government must avoid totalitarian structures and prioritize human rights, including gender equality and religious freedoms. He noted that while stability in Syria may take time, it is crucial that any post-Assad governance system be inclusive and reflective of Syria’s diverse population. A failed attempt at establishing a religiously or ideologically homogeneous state, according to Prof. Dr. Bağcı, would result in continued instability, similar to the difficulties faced by other Middle Eastern states.
Challenges in Forming a Democratic Syria: One of the major points Prof. Dr. Bağcı addressed was the necessity of creating a democratic political structure in Syria. He argued that the establishment of a new regime must avoid replicating the authoritarian governance of Assad’s era. Instead, Syria must develop a constitution and a political system that represents all of its citizens. Prof. Dr. Bağcı warned that a return to dictatorship could lead to even worse outcomes than under Assad’s rule. For Turkiye to be a positive force in Syria, it must advocate for a democratic transition, ensuring that Syria does not become a state that consumes security but rather one that generates it, contributing to regional stability.
The Importance of Syrian Returnees and Regional Cooperation: Prof. Dr. Bağcı also discussed the future repatriation of millions of Syrians who fled the country due to the civil war. He highlighted that, similar to Bosnia-Herzegovina's post-conflict recovery, Syrians will likely return to their homeland once peace and stability are restored. He noted that Turkiye, which has hosted millions of Syrian refugees, must play a role in facilitating this return, ensuring the safe reintegration of displaced persons. Additionally, he stressed the importance of collaborative efforts with regional powers such as Iran, Russia, and Israel, as well as the European Union, to support Syria’s transition and long-term stability.
Turkiye's Geostrategic Interests and Its Role in Regional Stability: Prof. Dr. Bağcı highlighted Syria’s critical geostrategic position, particularly in relation to Turkiye’s security and regional trade routes. He pointed out that while Syria's 911-kilometer border with Turkiye is a significant concern, Turkiye must also be proactive in engaging with global powers such as the United States and Russia to address the complex challenges in the region. He stressed the importance of balancing national security interests with broader diplomatic engagement, noting that Turkiye’s contributions to regional stability will be vital for securing a peaceful future for Syria. Furthermore, Turkiye's role as a disruptor in the region—shaping outcomes through strategic intervention—was underscored.
Opportunities and Challenges for Turkiye in the Syrian Reconstruction Process: Prof. Dr. Bağcı discussed the potential opportunities and challenges facing Turkiye as it navigates the post-Assad era. He highlighted that Turkiye’s long-standing involvement with Syria—through military, economic, and humanitarian efforts—positions it uniquely to play a leadership role in Syria’s reconstruction. However, he cautioned that while Turkiye is well-equipped to help rebuild Syria, the process will be fraught with political, economic, and social challenges. Prof. Dr. Bağcı also pointed out the significant role of Syrian refugees in Turkiye, underlining the importance of their safe return to Syria once conditions stabilize. This repatriation, he suggested, could facilitate Turkiye's continued trade relations and contribute to regional stability.
Conclusion: Navigating Syria's Future: Turkiye's Strategic Role in a New Geopolitical Era
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı's analysis provides a comprehensive outlook on the future of Syria following the fall of Assad, emphasizing the need for a strategic and inclusive approach to the country’s political and economic reconstruction. By recognizing the historical context, understanding Syria’s geostrategic importance, and highlighting the challenges of establishing a democratic governance model, Prof. Dr. Bağcı stresses the critical role of Turkiye in shaping the region’s future. With its significant military, diplomatic, and economic engagements, Turkiye is positioned as a key player in fostering regional stability and supporting Syria’s transition to a democratic, secure, and prosperous state. As Syria embarks on a new phase, Prof. Dr. Bağcı's insights underline that regional cooperation, particularly with major powers like Russia, Iran, and Israel, alongside a focus on human rights and inclusive governance, will be essential in ensuring long-term peace and stability in the region.
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