Watch the segments from 00:00 to 05:40 and 14:45 to 18:50 and 22:15 to 25:35 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı on the Geopolitical Aftermath of the Assassination of Haniyeh
On August 3, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, appeared on Habertürk Haber Bülteni presented by Nur Köşker to discuss the significant geopolitical implications following the assassination of Haniyeh, a key political leader of Hamas. In a highly anticipated discussion, Prof. Bağcı shared his expert analysis on how this event could reshape Middle Eastern dynamics, with special emphasis on Israel, Iran, and regional powers.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Iran’s Reluctance for Direct Conflict with Israel: Prof. Bağcı highlighted that while there were expectations of an Iranian response, he doubted any direct conflict with Israel. He emphasized that channels between Iran and the U.S. remain open, and despite regional tensions, Iran and Israel have avoided direct engagement. Prof. Bağcı pointed out that an open conflict between Iran and Israel would involve the U.S., a risk Iran is not willing to take, preferring to act through proxy groups like Hezbollah instead.
Impact of Haniyeh’s Death on Hamas-Iran Relations: According to Bağcı, Haniyeh’s assassination could push Iran and Hamas into closer cooperation. He predicted that this would create a new phase in their relations, with Iran evaluating whether to step back or deepen its involvement with Hamas. This marks a crucial point in Middle Eastern politics, with Iran likely to avoid outright confrontation but still engaged through indirect support.
Netanyahu’s Strengthened Position in the Region: Prof. Bağcı likened Netanyahu’s current stance to a leader with no immediate challengers in the region, noting that no Middle Eastern country, including Turkey, is poised to intervene militarily against Israel. He argued that while diplomatic tension exists, particularly between Turkey and Israel, military intervention from regional players seems highly unlikely, allowing Netanyahu to maneuver unimpeded.
Arab World’s Silence and Its Implications: Bağcı stressed the silence from key Arab nations like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states regarding Hamas and its relations with Israel. He observed that most Arab countries are focused on diplomatic solutions rather than military involvement, leaving Turkey and Iran as the only vocal opponents of Israel’s policies, which could further isolate these nations diplomatically in the long term.
The Shifting Balance of Power in Hamas: The assassination of Haniyeh, Bağcı argued, could trigger an internal conflict within Hamas between its political and military wings. The death of a major political figure like Haniyeh may lead to a power struggle, where military factions seek greater influence. This internal friction within Hamas could shape its future strategies, both in negotiations with Israel and in its military campaigns.
Israel’s Untouchable Status in the International Order: Prof. Bağcı remarked on the improbability of any state or non-state actor successfully challenging Israel’s position, given its firm backing from the United States and the United Nations. He made it clear that Israel’s removal from the region is not feasible under the current global order, reinforcing Netanyahu’s growing power both regionally and internationally.
Iran’s Domestic Struggles and Strategic Constraints: Finally, Bağcı pointed out that while Iran continues to posture as a regional power, internal issues, such as its nuclear program and growing dissatisfaction among its youth and reformist factions, prevent it from engaging in a full-scale war. The assassination of Haniyeh might serve as a catalyst for transformation within Iran, but Bağcı concluded that the regime is unlikely to gamble on a direct war with Israel.
Conclusion: Strategic Maneuvering and Proxy Conflicts instead of Direct Warfare
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s in-depth analysis of the assassination of Haniyeh offers a crucial understanding of the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. His insights suggest that while regional tensions may escalate, neither Iran nor Israel is likely to engage in direct warfare, opting instead for strategic maneuvering and proxy conflicts. As the Middle East continues to face volatility, Bağcı’s commentary underscores the complexities at play and the careful calculations of key regional players.
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