Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Discusses Iran's Strategic Dilemmas in Potential Retaliation Against Israel
On August 6, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his expertise on the increasingly tense relations between Iran and Israel, highlighting the potential consequences of Iranian retaliation during HT 360 hosted by Dilek Gül. In this broadcast, Bağcı explored critical dynamics in the Middle East, the role of international players like the G7, and the impact of Iranian actions on regional stability.
Key Insights from Hüseyin Bağcı:
Hezbollah and Iran’s Support
Prof. Bağcı noted that Hezbollah’s consistent attacks on Israel are not a new development but emphasized that the intensity of recent actions has escalated tensions. He underscored the importance of understanding how much Iran can continue supporting Hezbollah, especially under the current strained geopolitical climate. While Hezbollah’s capabilities remain strong, Israel’s military power has historically managed to counter these threats effectively. Bağcı raised the question of whether Iran, already under pressure, would intensify its military engagement.
G7 Support and Iran’s Isolation
A critical point raised by Bağcı was the G7 countries' united stance in warning Iran of severe economic and military consequences should it attack Israel. He highlighted the significant isolation Iran faces, as traditional allies Russia and China have distanced themselves from the conflict. According to Bağcı, this leaves Iran vulnerable, not only militarily but also in terms of political alliances, signaling a strategic disadvantage if it chooses to escalate the situation with Israel.
Iran’s Internal Dilemma
Bağcı elaborated on Iran’s internal struggles, particularly the challenges faced by its leadership. He described the Iranian administration as being in a precarious position, caught between escalating regional tensions and the potential for internal regime change if the conflict escalates. The professor remarked that any Iranian attack on Israel could provide an opportunity for opposition forces within Iran to push for significant political change, weakening the current regime.
Arab Countries’ Stance
An important dynamic discussed was the notable absence of Arab countries’ support for Iran in this conflict. Bağcı explained that despite Iran’s efforts to align with regional actors, key Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, remain neutral or even opposed to Iranian military actions. This lack of Arab solidarity further complicates Iran’s position and weakens its influence in the broader Middle Eastern landscape.
The Strategic Value of the Gulf
Bağcı pointed out Iran’s potential strategy of using the Gulf as leverage, particularly by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil exports. However, he expressed skepticism about Iran’s ability to execute this successfully, given the likely pushback from major international powers like the U.S. and Europe. He argued that while this could cause temporary disruption, it would ultimately harm Iran more than its intended targets.
Israel’s Strong International Support
Bağcı highlighted the unwavering international support for Israel, particularly from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom. He suggested that this backing emboldens Israel’s leadership, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, to take a firm stance against Iran. The professor linked this support to Israel’s importance as a strategic ally for Western countries, noting that the existence and security of Israel remain non-negotiable for many global powers.
Iran’s Military Capabilities and Limitations
Finally, Bağcı addressed the military imbalance between Iran and Israel. While Iran possesses significant missile capabilities, including Shahab missiles that can reach key Israeli cities, Bağcı expressed doubts about Iran’s willingness to engage in full-scale war. He warned that such an escalation could lead to devastating consequences for Iran, both in terms of international retaliation and the potential for internal political collapse.
Conclusion: A Full-Scale Military Confrontation Remains Uncertain despite the Rising Tension
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı highlighted the precarious balance in the Iran-Israel conflict, emphasizing the risks of escalation without the backing of key global powers like Russia and China. Iran's potential retaliation is limited by both regional isolation and the economic pressures from Western powers. Bağcı stresses that while Iran may continue supporting groups like Hezbollah, a direct conflict with Israel could lead to devastating consequences for the Iranian regime, possibly even triggering internal regime change. His analysis points to a broader geopolitical shift, where regional players, particularly Turkey and the Gulf states, maintain a cautious distance from the conflict, underscoring the complexity of Middle Eastern politics.
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