Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s Analysis of Recent Geopolitical Developments Following the U.S. Elections
On November 18, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, participated in the Nedir Ne Değildir? program on Habertürk TV, where he shared his expert analysis on the shifting dynamics of global diplomacy. Hosted by Faruk Aksoy, the discussion centered on pressing issues such as the implications of Donald Trump’s return to power, evolving US-Turkiye relations, and broader global trends in diplomacy and politics, the future of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the changing global order.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
The Complexity of US Policy Towards Ukraine and Russia: Prof. Bağcı highlighted the delicate balance the US is striking in its support for Ukraine while managing its geopolitical interests. Bağcı noted that President Biden’s stance on permitting Ukraine to attack Russia with advanced weaponry could be a strategic signal to both Russia and Zelensky. However, with only a few months left in his administration, this policy might also aim to shape the diplomatic landscape before Trump’s potential return, creating uncertainty about the US's long-term strategy and raising concerns over possible rapid escalation due to likely Russian retaliation.
The Russian-Ukrainian Conflict’s Impact on Europe: Prof. Bağcı discussed the broader ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly the potential for increased migration to Europe. Bağcı highlighted that the displacement of over 14 million people due to the conflict, with the potential for more refugees heading to Europe amid intensified hostilities, poses a significant strain on countries like Germany—already facing economic fallout and political uncertainty ahead of its elections—potentially leading to further destabilization within the European Union. European support for Ukraine, he noted, is waning, driven by rising domestic costs and shifting political priorities, such as Germany’s focus on internal security and budget constraints.
Germany's Role in the Changing European Leadership Dynamics: Prof. Bağcı underscored Germany's central role in the evolving leadership structure within Europe, particularly as it navigates its relationship with Russia and the potential shift in US foreign policy under a Trump administration. Bağcı also noted that Germany’s growing influence could face resistance from EU member states like Poland, the Netherlands, and Belgium, creating geopolitical tensions and raising concerns about NATO’s cohesion and Europe’s future security and stability.
The Transformation of Turkiye-US Relations Under Trump: Prof. Bağcı analyzed the potential shifts in Turkiye-US relations under Donald Trump’s administration. Bağcı stressed the necessity of proactive lobbying and diplomacy, particularly given historical lags in Turkiye’s efforts to influence American policymakers compared to other ethnic and national groups. He emphasized that cultivating genuine relationships and leveraging strategic opportunities, such as high-level visits and shared interests, could help counteract negative perceptions and strengthen bilateral ties.
The Rise of Entrepreneurs in Global Politics: Bağcı identified a significant global trend which is the increasing participation of entrepreneurs and business leaders in politics. Referencing figures like Elon Musk, Bağcı argued that a new wave of leadership is reshaping traditional state structures by prioritizing innovation and efficiency over conventional bureaucratic models. He emphasized the importance of understanding "megatrends," where commercial acumen and technological integration, like artificial intelligence, are key drivers of success, predicting this trend will shape global politics in the next decade, presenting challenges and opportunities for countries like Turkiye.
Strategic Diplomacy and Overcoming Isolation Perceptions: Addressing perceptions of isolation in Turkish foreign policy, Bağcı emphasized the power of dialogue and active engagement on the global stage. Drawing from his extensive experience in international diplomacy, he noted that fostering personal connections with foreign policymakers and business leaders is crucial. This includes participating in international forums, hosting influential leaders in Turkiye, and effectively showcasing Turkiye’s strengths and contributions. Bağcı underscored that diplomacy is about building trust and understanding, which requires sustained effort and investment in relationships.
The Global South and Emerging Megatrends: Bağcı emphasized the rise of the Global South as a transformative force in global politics. Countries such as China, India, and Brazil are increasingly influential in shaping the global economy, military advancements, and technological innovation. Turkiye must align itself strategically within this new order, leveraging its geographic and political position to engage with both traditional allies and emerging powers in the Global South.
Conclusion: Critical Need for Proactive and Informed Diplomacy Increases as U.S. Diplomacy Shifts to a more Transactional Nature
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s analysis highlights the complex interplay of global trends shaping the future of international relations. From the enduring ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the transactional nature of US diplomacy under Donald Trump and the transformative rise of the Global South, the challenges and opportunities for nations like Turkiye are profound. Bağcı’s emphasis on strategic engagement, adaptability to shifting alliances, and leveraging emerging trends such as artificial intelligence and economic realignments underscores the critical need for proactive, informed diplomacy.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.