Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Analyzes the Nuclear Threshold Amidst Escalating Conflict in Ukraine
On November 22, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, appeared on Duygu Kaya ile Bugün, hosted by Duygu Kaya on Ekol TV. As the ongoing Ukraine crisis continues to shape global geopolitical dynamics, Prof. Bağcı provided critical insights into the conflict’s current trajectory, its implications for NATO, and the prospect of broader confrontation. His analysis underscores the complex interplay of global powers and offers a nuanced perspective on the future of international security.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
The Ukraine Crisis as a Global Concern: Prof. Bağcı emphasized that the conflict has transcended regional boundaries to become a global issue, highlighting the role of U.S. military aid, particularly the provision of advanced missiles to Ukraine. These actions have significantly heightened tensions with Russia, which has responded by testing intermediate-range missiles. Despite the escalating provocations, Prof. Bağcı argued that the situation has not yet reached the threshold of a global war. Instead, both sides are currently engaged in strategic deterrence and calculated provocations aimed at maintaining a fragile balance.
The Role of NATO and Strategic Alliances: Addressing NATO's involvement, Prof. Bağcı noted that while 12 NATO member states actively support Ukraine with arms. He pointed out that the alliance's response is shaped by major players such as the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Spain. Prof. Bağcı underscored that the U.S. remains the decisive actor, with its policies influencing the trajectory of the conflict and broader NATO strategy.
The Nuclear Threshold and Future Risks: Delving into the nuclear dimension, Prof. Bağcı explained the critical concepts of "first strike" and "second strike" in nuclear warfare, stressing that the current stage of the conflict has not yet crossed this catastrophic threshold. While the possibility of a NATO-Russia conflict involving nuclear weapons would lead to unparalleled destruction, Prof. Bağcı remains cautiously optimistic that this outcome can still be avoided. He reiterated that the actions of both sides, though provocative, are primarily aimed at deterrence rather than escalation to nuclear conflict.
Conclusion: A Call for Strategic Restraint and Diplomatic Engagement
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s insights reveal the Ukraine conflict as a pivotal moment in contemporary global politics, with implications for security, diplomacy, and international alliances. While tensions between NATO and Russia are rising, he remains hopeful that strategic deterrence and cautious diplomacy can prevent further escalation. The importance of measured responses, collective decision-making among global powers, and proactive efforts to de-escalate the crisis cannot be overstated. As the world watches closely, the focus must remain on finding sustainable solutions that prioritize peace and stability over provocation and conflict.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.