Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Highlights Turkey’s Role in Shaping Regional and Global Stability
On November 16, 2024, the Habertürk TV program "Gerçek Fikri Ne?" hosted an engaging discussion led by Eren Eğilmez, where Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared critical insights on Turkey’s strategic position in an evolving geopolitical landscape. The topic of the program is "The Future of Terrorism and Turkey’s Geopolitical Role." Prof. Bağcı explored the intricate interplay between terrorism, economic development, and regional stability while reflecting on global trends, including the implications of Donald Trump’s potential policy shifts.
Here are the key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s remarks:
1. The Economic Burden of Counter-Terrorism on Turkey: Prof. Bağcı emphasized the staggering economic cost of Turkey's fight against terrorism, exceeding $300 billion since 1984. He linked these expenditures to a delay in Turkey’s economic growth and regional influence, stressing that a terror-free Turkey could become a regulator in regional relations, fostering political and economic stability across neighboring countries.
2. Global Trends Impacting Non-State Armed Groups: He discussed a global shift against non-state armed formations, citing recent events such as Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Prof. Bağcı predicted that armed groups, including the PKK-PYD, will face increasing difficulties as global powers prioritize economic corridors and stability. This trend reflects a diminishing tolerance for actions that disrupt regional and global order.
3. The Strategic Calculations of Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy: According to Prof. Bağcı, Donald Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy, focusing on economic gains rather than human rights, could reshape alliances and strategies in the Middle East. He highlighted potential U.S. policy changes, including reduced financial support for prolonged conflicts and reliance on direct, pragmatic negotiations.
4. The Shift from Minority Rights to Majority Prioritization: Prof. Bağcı identified an emerging global narrative favoring majority interests over minority rights. He framed this trend within the context of Turkey’s counter-terrorism efforts, suggesting that attempts to frame terrorist activities as independence movements are increasingly losing traction on the international stage.
5. The Strategic Depth of Turkey’s Military Operations: Highlighting Turkey’s extensive military expertise, Prof. Bağcı explained the country’s operational capabilities in managing cross-border threats. He underscored Turkey’s ability to act swiftly and strategically, drawing on a history of successful interventions since 2016, demonstrating its readiness to address evolving security challenges.
6. The Role of Regional and Global Contexts in Counter-Terrorism: Prof. Bağcı underscored the importance of understanding regional dynamics, including the stance of Arab states, and the broader geopolitical strategies of powers like Iran and the U.S. He argued that sustainable solutions to regional instability require a comprehensive understanding of historical and strategic perspectives, including those of major players like the Persian Empire.
7. Challenges of State Formation in the Middle East: Prof. Hüseyin Bağcı emphasized the historical and structural challenges of establishing new states in the Middle East. He noted that the region's political culture, shaped by regimes like the Ba'athists in Iraq and Syria, lacks the flexibility needed to support the emergence of new states. Attempts to establish a Kurdish state, for instance, have historically failed due to opposition from surrounding powers and the deep-seated integration of various ethnic groups into existing nation-states.
8. Non-State Actors as Regional Disruptors: Bağcı highlighted the destabilizing role of non-state armed organizations, such as the PKK and PYD, which operate across borders and challenge state sovereignty. He argued that these groups face mounting challenges in the region, as their activities are increasingly at odds with the broader economic and political developments, such as regional infrastructure projects. Their survival depends on disarmament or integration into existing societal structures.
9. Arab State Resistance to Foreign Interference:
Prof. Bağcı noted a growing consensus among Arab nations against foreign-supported armed groups. He pointed out that despite internal divisions, countries like the Gulf states, Egypt, and others in the Arab League are unified in rejecting the presence of foreign organizations that threaten regional stability. This shared stance may shape future efforts to address issues like the Palestinian question and other conflicts in the Middle East.
Conclusion: Resistance among Regional Powers and Arab States to the Influence of Foreign-backed Armed Groups is Growing
In his analysis, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı highlighted the multifaceted challenges and enduring complexities of the Middle East, emphasizing the profound impact of non-state organizations and their destabilizing role in the region. Prof. Bağcı also pointed out the broader geopolitical implications of these issues, noting that instability in Syria directly affects neighboring countries, including Turkey, by fueling insecurity and fostering environments where armed groups thrive. He argued that addressing such challenges requires recognizing the regional nature of these problems, rather than isolating them as individual national issues. Furthermore, he highlighted a growing resistance among regional powers and Arab states to the influence of foreign-backed armed groups, particularly as they pose threats to economic development and broader stability.
Prof. Bağcı concluded that the future of the Middle East will be shaped by its ability to manage the tensions between national development, demographic realities, and the disruptive activities of non-state actors. While acknowledging the complexity of resolving these issues, he stressed the importance of understanding historical precedents, regional dynamics, and cultural identities as foundational to crafting sustainable solutions in this volatile region.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.