Watch the segments from 0:09:20 to 0:23:00 | 1:14:50 to 1:29:50 | 02:08:50 to 02:15:00 and 3:00:35 to 3:11:45 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı on Iran’s Awaited Retaliation Against Israel: Strategic Insights and Global Implications
On August 11, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, shared his expert analysis during Habertürk Gündem, hosted by Çetiner Çetin. The program focused on the anticipated Iranian retaliation against Israel, with Prof. Bağcı offering deep insights into the geopolitical complexities and the potential consequences for global security.
Key Insights by Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Iran's Strategic Caution and Historical Context: Prof. Bağcı emphasized Iran’s long-standing cautious approach, particularly in military operations. He highlighted Iran's calculated military strategy, which stems from centuries of military experience, summed up by the Iranian proverb "A thousand times stitch, once cut." This careful strategy is seen in their current military exercises, as Iran understands that any misstep could lead to significant losses, not just militarily but also politically, with potential unrest within the country.
Israel-Iran Relationship: Mutual Necessity for Conflict: According to Prof. Bağcı, Iran serves as a vital enemy for Israel, fulfilling a political need within Israeli domestic and foreign policy. This "enemy role" has been consistent since the 1990s, serving Israeli strategic purposes. Despite being adversaries, Prof. Bağcı pointed out the irony of ongoing trade relations between the two nations. He recalled conversations with Israeli officials who admitted this duality, affirming Iran’s role as a key player in shaping Israel’s internal and external narratives.
Western and Regional Dynamics: The Role of Russia and the U.S: A significant part of Prof. Bağcı's analysis focused on the international response to an Iran-Israel conflict. Russia’s influence, especially with Putin urging caution to Iran, underscores the complex ties in the region, where over a million Russian Jews reside in Israel. Additionally, the U.S. and Western nations, including NATO members, would immediately rally behind Israel, ensuring that any Iranian retaliation would face overwhelming military and political resistance.
Nuclear Ambitions: A Shield for Iran’s Security: One of the more alarming points from Prof. Bağcı was Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He explained that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons stems from historical trauma, particularly the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). Prof. Bağcı noted that Iran believes acquiring nuclear capabilities would shield it from foreign interventions, much like how Pakistan and Israel use their nuclear arsenals as deterrents.
Hezbollah’s Role and Lebanon's Tragic Decline: The discussion also touched upon Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon, with Prof. Bağcı clarifying that while Hezbollah is powerful, it is not synonymous with Lebanon. He lamented the fragmentation of Lebanon, which was once the “Paris of the Middle East.” This disintegration, he observed, is part of the broader regional turmoil, where various non-state actors play influential roles in shaping national destinies.
Arab World's Stance: A Calculated Silence: Prof. Bağcı remarked on the conspicuous silence from the Arab world regarding the Iranian-Israeli conflict. He argued that the Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, are strategically positioning themselves away from direct involvement, instead using diplomacy to navigate the complexities of regional rivalries. This reflects a shift in Arab-Israeli relations, where non-Arab nations like Iran and Turkey are now at the forefront of the Palestinian cause.
Global Implications and the Need for Peace Talks: In conclusion, Prof. Bağcı stressed that the ongoing tension, while in Iran’s short-term favor, could spiral into an uncontrollable conflict. He advocated for peace talks as the only viable solution to de-escalate the situation. Prof. Bağcı also linked the conflict to broader global issues, referencing other hotspots like Ukraine and emphasizing that the world is witnessing a dangerous trend of simultaneous, multi-faceted conflicts.
Conclusion: Peace Talks as the only Viable Solution for De-Escalation
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s analysis underscores the intricate web of geopolitical dynamics at play in the ongoing Iran-Israel tensions. His insights reveal a landscape where historical grievances, regional power plays, and nuclear ambitions intersect, creating a volatile mix with profound implications for global security. As Iran and Israel navigate their fraught relationship, the international community must remain vigilant, emphasizing diplomatic avenues to mitigate the risk of escalation. Prof. Bağcı’s call for peace talks highlights the urgent need for strategic dialogue and careful management of this high-stakes conflict.
Ankara Global Advisory Group is proud to continue offering thought leadership on key international issues, ensuring that global decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge they need to navigate complex security dynamics.
For a more detailed analysis from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı and the latest developments in international relations, continue following updates from Ankara Global Advisory Group.