Watch the segments from 04:25 to 11:15 and 15:40 to 22:50 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Highlights Turkey and Russo-American Competition in Syria
On August 14, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, the co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, participated in HT 360, presented by Dilek Gül, to discuss the ongoing Russo-American competition in Syria. In this insightful session, Prof. Bağcı examined the strategic dynamics shaping Syria’s future, shedding light on the roles of global powers such as the U.S. and Russia, as well as regional players including Turkey, Iran, and Kurdish groups. His remarks provided a comprehensive view of the geopolitical landscape in Syria and the broader Middle East.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Turkey’s Critical Role in Syria’s Future Prof. Bağcı emphasized Turkey's significant military and political presence in Syria, underlining its pivotal role in shaping the region's future. Turkey's influence extends beyond its borders, particularly with its approach to Kurdish groups attempting to establish a state in northern Syria. Bağcı argues that Turkey's stance, in alignment with regional powers like Iran and Syria, aims to prevent Kurdish statehood, thus maintaining a delicate balance of power in the Middle East.
The U.S. Commitment to the Region Post-Elections Contrary to speculation about a possible U.S. withdrawal from Syria, Bağcı confidently stated that the United States would maintain its presence in the region. The U.S. has been instrumental in supporting groups like the YPG, supplying them with weapons and military aid. Bağcı suggested that this support aligns with a broader American strategy in the Middle East, driven by high-level geopolitical objectives that remain consistent regardless of which political party holds power in Washington.
Russian-American Divergence on Kurdish Statehood Bağcı pointed out the stark difference in U.S. and Russian policies regarding the formation of a Kurdish state. While the U.S. appears to support the idea, seeing it as a potential buffer zone beneficial to Israel, Russia remains opposed, favoring the status quo to avoid destabilizing the region further. Bağcı noted that this divergence adds another layer of complexity to the already tense relations between these global powers in Syria.
Regional Opposition to Kurdish State Formation Prof. Bağcı elaborated on the strong opposition from Turkey, Iran, and Syria to the establishment of a Kurdish state. He highlighted that these three countries, representing distinct civilizations—Persia, Turkey, and the Arab world—are united in their stance against Kurdish independence. This opposition is rooted not only in regional power dynamics but also in historical factors, as these civilizations have long contested control over this strategically vital area.
The Broader Geopolitical Implications of Syrian Conflict Bağcı contextualized the Syrian conflict within a larger framework of global competition, notably the emerging geopolitical rivalry between the U.S.-Western alliance and the Russia-China bloc. He described the conflict as emblematic of the new regional and global struggles that have arisen since the end of the Cold War. Bağcı's analysis positioned Syria as a critical battleground in this multifaceted competition, with outcomes that could influence the balance of power worldwide.
Turkey’s High Strategy in Maintaining Regional Stability Prof. Bağcı reiterated Turkey’s strategic imperative to maintain a military presence in Syria to safeguard its national security, particularly along its southern border. He warned that a premature withdrawal of Turkish forces could lead to a fragmented border region, heightening the risk of instability. Bağcı suggested that Turkey’s participation in the Astana Process and its bilateral relations with Russia would be key to ensuring long-term stability in the region.
The Legacy of American Foreign Policy in the Middle East Reflecting on the legacy of U.S. foreign policy, Bağcı discussed how American strategies in Syria are shaped by long-standing geopolitical objectives that transcend individual administrations. He referenced former President Barack Obama’s strategy of “leading from behind,” which continues to influence U.S. actions in the Middle East. According to Bağcı, this enduring approach underscores Washington’s desire to project power in the region without direct military intervention.
Conclusion: Turkey’s Strategic Balancing Act in the Syrian Geopolitical Chessboard
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı’s analysis reveals Turkey’s central role in the ongoing geopolitical contest in Syria. His insights emphasize Turkey’s strategic significance in shaping the region’s future, particularly in countering Kurdish statehood aspirations and navigating complex relations with global powers like the U.S. and Russia. Bağcı underscores that Turkey's military presence and political stance are crucial in maintaining regional stability and influencing the broader Middle Eastern dynamics. As Syria remains a focal point of international contention, Turkey’s position as a key player underscores its importance in global strategic discussions.
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