Watch the segments from 26:55 to 48:05 for key insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı.
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Shares Insights on Trump’s 2024 Reelection and Global Implications
On November 6, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of Ankara Global Advisory Group, joined on KRT TV’s Öğle Haberleri hosted by Çağla Atlı to discuss the ramifications of Donald Trump’s reelection in the U.S. Prof. Bağcı explored Trump’s approach to foreign policy, U.S.-Turkiye relations, and the broader impacts of his leadership on the global stage.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Renewed Potential for U.S.-Turkiye Collaboration on Defense Issues: Prof. Bağcı noted that the Trump-Erdoğan relationship, though often contentious, offers an established foundation that could help bridge past disputes. Bağcı pointed to significant unresolved matters, such as the F-35 and F-16 programs, which have cost Turkiye an estimated $12 billion in missed defense technology. With Trump back in office, Bağcı sees an opening for revisiting these programs and enhancing technological partnerships, which would bolster Turkiye's defense capacity and potentially restore lost investments.
Refugee Policy and Middle Eastern Stability: Prof. Bağcı underscored Trump’s campaign promises to reduce foreign conflicts and address issues in Gaza and Ukraine. According to Bağcı, Trump’s emphasis on stability over intervention could mean a decrease in Middle Eastern conflicts and refugee inflows, aligning with both Turkiye’s and the region’s priorities for stability. This non-interventionist stance may promote diplomatic solutions in the Middle East, where Turkiye could play a mediating role alongside the U.S.
Navigating the U.S.-China Power Dynamic: In terms of the escalating U.S.-China rivalry, Bağcı emphasized the global stakes tied to their economic interdependence. He believes Trump’s pragmatism will prioritize economic cooperation over confrontation, a stance that could benefit Turkiye by maintaining access to both U.S. and Chinese markets. Bağcı sees a multipolar world emerging where Turkiye’s neutral but strategic position could enhance its leverage in trade and economic diplomacy, especially as both powers aim to avoid direct conflict.
Strengthened Diplomatic Relations with a Pragmatic Approach: Prof. Bağcı highlighted that Trump’s administration, marked by practical decision-making and an economic focus, may encourage nations to prioritize similar strategies in their foreign relations. Turkiye, with its established geopolitical presence and strategic ties to both the West and emerging economies, could leverage this environment to foster stronger diplomatic and economic connections, further advancing its position as a central player in a balanced, multipolar world.
Turkiye's Refugee Situation and Regional Challenges: Bağcı explained that Turkiye faces its own complex issues related to refugees, a rare point of consensus between the Turkish government and opposition. He raised questions about Trump’s policies on Syria, Iraq, and Iran, noting that Trump’s relationships with regional allies, including Turkiye, are significant for stability. Bağcı highlighted Turkiye’s role as a NATO member and its responsibility in safeguarding NATO’s southern borders. He suggested that Trump’s policies may encourage Turkiye to strengthen border security, particularly as the situation in Syria remains fragile due to the lack of a stable government.
U.S.-Iran Relations and the Middle East: With Trump’s return, Bağcı anticipates a shift in the Middle East, focusing on economic cooperation rather than conflict. Trump’s team, he said, will likely reassess interests with Iran, especially considering its strengthening ties with China and Russia, its entry into BRICS, and its nuclear program. Bağcı pointed out that while Iran faces heavy sanctions, a new negotiation with the U.S. and EU countries may emerge. However, with Iran’s recent global alliances, this dialogue may differ significantly from the past.
Outlook on Syria and the Role of Russia: Discussing the Syrian conflict, Bağcı highlighted the centrality of the U.S.-Russia relationship. He suggested that Trump is unlikely to engage directly with Assad, as Russia holds considerable sway over Syrian policy. Turkiye’s role, he noted, could be limited but impactful in border regions, especially as NATO refrains from intervening in Syria’s security. Trump’s strategy in the Middle East may prioritize reducing tensions in conflict areas such as Gaza and Lebanon.
Israel-Iran Relations and Trump’s Determined Stance: Prof. Bağcı remarked on Trump’s commitment to addressing issues in Israel and Iran. Trump appears intent on ending the cycle of threats and retaliations between the two nations, especially regarding Hezbollah and Gaza. With Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s weakened political position, Bağcı suggests that Trump may adopt a more assertive approach. However, he noted that the methods Trump will use remain to be seen, hinting at a potential recalibration of U.S. policies in the region.
Conclusion: Strategic Shifts and Opportunities for Turkiye in a Second Trump Presidency
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı's insights into Donald Trump's potential second term underscore a pragmatic, security-focused approach that could reshape U.S. policy on refugees, foreign relations, and Middle Eastern conflicts. Trump’s stance on refugees echoes similar trends in Europe, where nations are tightening immigration policies to protect national stability, a move that resonates with Turkiye’s current refugee challenges as well. His anticipated emphasis on economic cooperation over conflict may recalibrate U.S.-Iran relations, despite Iran's strengthened position through alliances with BRICS and regional powers like China and Russia. The U.S.-Russia relationship will continue to be pivotal, especially in managing the ongoing Syrian crisis, where Turkiye plays a crucial role as a NATO border state. Trump’s firm approach to Israel-Iran tensions signals a potential departure from cyclical conflicts, particularly in regions like Gaza and Lebanon, where he appears determined to foster stability.
For Turkiye, a renewed Trump administration could present both challenges and opportunities, bolstering its role within NATO while reinforcing its economic and geopolitical influence in the Middle East. In a multipolar world, Bağcı suggests, Turkiye’s strategic alignment with Trump’s policies may help it navigate complex regional dynamics and bolster its national security and diplomatic standing.
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