Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Discusses Insights on U.S. 2024 Elections and Key Shifts in American Politics
On November 6, 2024, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, co-founder of the Ankara Global Advisory Group, participated in Habertürk TV’s Açık ve Net program hosted by Semiha Şahin. The focus of the discussion was the implications of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, particularly regarding Donald Trump’s potential second term and his influence on both domestic and global affairs. Prof. Bağcı offered critical insights into the political landscape surrounding Trump’s reelection, emphasizing key shifts in American politics, foreign relations, and global power dynamics.
Key Insights from Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı:
Trump’s Appeal and His Political Narrative in the 21st Century: Prof. Bağcı noted that the political landscape has evolved significantly in the 21st century, with the rise of populist leaders who communicate in more direct, simplified terms to resonate with a broad electorate. He emphasized that Donald Trump’s appeal lies in his ability to speak directly to people’s concerns, offering concrete promises such as economic growth, stronger borders, and national security. Bağcı pointed out that this straightforward communication style makes Trump’s message more relatable in an era when voters are increasingly impatient with lengthy, abstract political discourse. This type of leadership, Bağcı suggested, marks a stark contrast to the politeness and diplomacy often associated with past statesmen.
The Impact of Trump’s First Term and His Lessons Learned: Reflecting on Trump’s first term, Prof. Bağcı argued that the lessons Trump learned from his initial presidency position him as a more predictable leader in a potential second term. Bağcı pointed out that Trump’s defeat in 2020 was an opportunity for him to reassess his strategies, which he could refine for a more effective second campaign. The dynamics of U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding China, Russia, and the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Syria, are expected to shift as Trump aims to address challenges with clearer, more direct actions. Bağcı speculated that Trump’s promise to resolve global conflicts quickly—such as the Russo-Ukrainian war—might align with his pragmatic approach to international diplomacy, a stark contrast to the prolonged and costly engagements of the Biden administration.
Trump’s Influence on Global Relations and Turkiye’s Position: Prof. Bağcı also provided insights into the broader geopolitical implications of a second Trump term, particularly for Turkiye. He noted that while tensions between Trump and European countries could persist, especially over security and economic policies, Turkiye might benefit from a U.S. president who adopts a more pragmatic approach to global relations. Bağcı suggested that Trump’s foreign policy stance could lead to a stronger U.S.-Turkiye relationship, especially as Europe faces security vulnerabilities in the wake of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Bağcı predicted that a more strategic U.S. approach under Trump could lead to closer ties between Turkiye and both the U.S. and the global south, with potential benefits for Turkish diplomacy and defense interests.
The U.S.-Turkiye Relationship and Expectations for Mutual Negotiation: Prof. Bağcı highlighted that Turkiye's relationship with the United States has long been characterized by tensions, particularly due to American support for the YPG, a group Turkiye deems as a terrorist organization. Bağcı argued that for Turkiye to remain aligned with the U.S. regionally and globally, mutual expectations need to be addressed through direct negotiations. He pointed out that while Turkiye is committed to its Western alliances, particularly NATO and the European Union, it also recognizes the need to diversify its foreign policy to adapt to a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. This requires Turkiye to engage in new dialogues with non-Western powers, such as Russia and China, without abandoning its foundational ties with the West.
Turkiy's Strategic Shift and Broader Global Engagement: Drawing historical parallels, Prof. Bağcı referenced Turkiye's decision to abstain from the 1st Asia-Africa Conference in the late 1940s as a mistake, one which Turkiye cannot afford to repeat today. He emphasized that in a multipolar world, it is essential for Turkiye to expand its reach beyond the Western sphere. Bağcı highlighted the growing importance of strengthening relations with China, Russia, and Central Asia while maintaining its involvement in key regions such as the Caucasus, the Balkans, and the Mediterranean. He stressed that Turkiye's geostrategic position places it at the crossroads of critical global issues, making it increasingly indispensable to international security and economics.
Turkiye’s Role in European and Global Security Dynamics: Prof. Bağcı pointed out that Turkiye’s role in global security is often misunderstood. He explained that Turkiye is not merely a consumer of security but a producer of it, citing the country's military operations in Syria, Kosovo, Lebanon, and its involvement in NATO missions. With Europe’s security now heavily reliant on the U.S. following the Russian-Ukrainian war, Bağcı noted that Turkiye's strategic position is more vital than ever. He also mentioned the growing shift in Europe’s approach to Turkiye, largely due to the country’s significant geoeconomic and geopolitical influence. As European nations face ongoing economic crises and security challenges, Bağcı predicted that Turkiye would increasingly become an attractive partner, particularly in sectors such as energy, trade, and defense.
Turkiye’s Strategic Importance in Global Security and NATO: Prof. Bağcı emphasizes that Turkiye’s position within NATO and its growing strategic importance globally mean that the U.S. will increasingly need Turkiye, especially in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. He highlights the ongoing debate around Turkiye’s F-35 fighter jets and argues that if the U.S. wants to retain Turkiye within NATO and prevent Turkiye from aligning with China and Russia, it must address Turkiye’s expectations, particularly regarding military modernization. Bağcı recalls historical moments, such as the 1970s embargo on Turkiye, to show how shifts in global geopolitics often lead the U.S. to recognize Turkiye’s strategic value, fulfilling its needs despite past tensions.
Donald Trump’s Pragmatic Approach and Turkiye’s Leverage: Bağcı discusses Trump’s more cautious and pragmatic approach to leadership in recent years, noting that his “businessman’s mindset” could work in favor of Turkiye. He argues that Trump has become more strategic in his dealings and has seen Turkiye as a vital partner, not only due to its strategic position but also because of its strong political presence in the U.S. Senate and Congress. With many members of Congress and the Senate supportive of Turkiye, Prof. Bağcı believes that Turkiye's hand is strengthened in U.S. negotiations. He also highlights the importance of Turkiye’s growing lobbying efforts in the U.S., suggesting that this could lead to deeper cooperation between the two nations in the future. Bağcı concludes that, despite past conflicts, the U.S. will likely engage with Turkiye more constructively under Trump’s revised leadership approach.
Conclusion: Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı on U.S. 2024 Elections and the Future of U.S.-Turkiye Relations
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı provided a comprehensive analysis of the potential implications of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, particularly in relation to U.S.-Turkiye relations and global dynamics. He outlined several key points that suggest a shift in how the U.S. may approach its alliances, with Turkiye potentially benefitting from a more pragmatic and strategic U.S. administration. He discussed how Turkiye’s growing strategic importance within NATO and its broader role in global security, especially in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, places the country in a crucial position for future U.S. engagement.
Bağcı suggested that Trump’s evolved approach to foreign policy could lead to a more beneficial relationship with Turkiye, especially given Turkiye's strong presence in U.S. politics and its strategic geopolitical location. While historical tensions may persist, Turkiye’s rising role in European and global security dynamics—alongside the country’s diversification of foreign relations—signals an opportunity for deeper cooperation between the two nations.
Overall, Prof. Bağcı’s insights indicate that the changing geopolitical landscape could open new doors for U.S.-Turkiye relations, particularly under Trump’s revised leadership approach. His pragmatic and transactional style may provide the foundation for more mutually beneficial negotiations in the years to come.
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